Question

Which of the following makes people believe they are more likely to die in a plane crash than a car crash? a. the fear schema b. the availability heuristic c. concept formation d. the representativeness heuristic

Short answer

b. the availability heuristic

Step-by-step solution

Understand Each Option

First, we'll break down what each of the options means to understand their implications. - **The fear schema** refers to a mental framework where fears are organized, but it's not specifically about comparing events. - **The availability heuristic** is the tendency to judge the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind. - **Concept formation** is the process of understanding and organizing information. - **The representativeness heuristic** is about identifying similarity with past experiences to make judgments.

Identify the Key Factor

Next, evaluate which of the given options directly relates to belief formation about the likelihood of events. The question asks why people believe one event is more likely than another. Typically, they rely on available information rather than facts, if one type of event is discussed or publicized more often.

Apply the Right Concept

Since people often hear more about plane crashes in the news compared to car crashes, even though car crashes are more frequent, they assess probabilities based on this frequent exposure to plane-related information. This relates to the **availability heuristic**, where the more readily available information skews their perception of likelihood.

Choose the Correct Option

Considering that the availability heuristic is about assessing probability based on readily available examples, it matches the reasoning that media coverage can overestimate the likelihood of plane crashes. Therefore, **b. the availability heuristic** is the correct choice.

Key concepts

Availability Heuristic

In everyday decision making, we often rely on shortcuts to help us judge how likely events are to happen. This can sometimes lead us to inaccurate conclusions. The availability heuristic is one such shortcut. It works by making us think that things that are easier to remember are more common or likely than they really are.
This happens because our brains assume that if we can easily recall something, it must be important or frequent. For example, if we often hear about plane crashes on the news, we might start to think they occur more regularly than they actually do.
However, in reality, car accidents happen far more often, but they don't usually make the news in the same dramatic manner. This means our judgment is based on media exposure and personal experiences. Therefore, the availability heuristic can sometimes cloud our judgment, leading us to be more cautious about things like taking a flight, despite it often being safer than driving.

• The availability heuristic is based on readily available information.
• It can result in overestimating the frequency or probability of events.
• Media coverage can greatly influence our perception due to the availability heuristic.

Heuristics in Decision Making

Heuristics are mental shortcuts our brains use to make quick decisions without needing to process all available information. They are essential for coping with the vast amount of data we encounter daily. While they increase efficiency, they can occasionally lead to errors or biases.
Common heuristics include the availability heuristic, representativeness heuristic, and anchoring effect. Each serves to simplify complex judgements by focusing on one aspect of the decision, rather than scrutinizing every detail.
A key advantage of heuristics is their speed. We don't have to conduct extensive research or analyze every piece of data before making a decision. This makes them invaluable in emergencies or when we need to make snap judgments. However, because these shortcuts simplify complex situations, they can sometimes result in flawed logic or decisions, especially when our mental shortcuts don't align with reality.

• Heuristics speed up decision-making processes.
• They can lead to biases and errors in judgment.
• Common examples are availability and representativeness heuristics.

Psychological Biases

Psychological biases are systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. They occur because our brains are wired to process large amounts of data quickly. As a result, we may not always assess situations accurately or make the best decisions.
There are numerous biases, including confirmation bias, where we favor information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs, and hindsight bias, where we see events as having been predictable after they have already happened.
One common bias affected by the availability heuristic is the overestimation bias, where we overestimate the likelihood of events which have been frequently publicized or vividly imagined. For example, overestimating plane crashes due to frequent news reports.
Recognizing and understanding these biases is important for improving decision making. By becoming aware of our tendencies, we can work towards minimizing their impact, prizing a more rational and informed approach to decision making.

• Biases are patterns of deviation from norm in judgments.
• They are often influenced by heuristics.
• Acknowledging biases helps in making better decisions.