Chapter 5: Q. T5.2 (page 357)
What is the probability that the person owns a Chevy, given that the truck has four-wheel drive?
The correct option is :
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Liar, liar! Sometimes police use a lie detector test to help determine whether a suspect is
telling the truth. A lie detector test isn’t foolproof—sometimes it suggests that a person is
lying when he or she is actually telling the truth (a “false positive”). Other times, the test
says that the suspect is being truthful when he or she is actually lying (a “false negative”).
For one brand of lie detector, the probability of a false positive is 0.08.
a. Explain what this probability means.
b. Which is a more serious error in this case: a false positive or a false negative? Justify
your answer.
Another commercial If Aaron tunes into his favorite radio station at a
randomly selected time, there is a probability that a commercial will be playing.
a. Interpret this probability as a long-run relative frequency.
b. If Aaron tunes into this station at randomly selected times, will there be exactly one
time when a commercial is playing? Explain your answer.
Keep on tossing The figure shows the results of two different sets ofcoin tosses.
Explain what this graph tells you about chance behavior in the short run and the long run.
Lucky penny? Harris Interactive reported that of U.S. adults believe that
finding and picking up a penny is good luck. Assuming that responses from different
individuals are independent, what is the probability of randomly selecting U.S. adults
and finding at least person who believes that finding and picking up a penny is good
luck?
Genetics There are many married couples in which the husband and wife both carry a gene for cystic fibrosis but don’t have the disease themselves. Suppose we select one of these couples at random. According to the laws of genetics, the probability that their first child will develop cystic fibrosis is
a. Interpret this probability as a long-run relative frequency.
b. If researchers randomly select such couples, is one of these couples guaranteed to have a first child who develops cystic fibrosis? Explain your answer.
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