Question

The article "Anxiety Increases for Airline Passengers After Plane Crash" (San Luis Obispo Tribune, November 13,2001 ) reported that air passengers have a 1 in 11 million chance of dying in an airplane crash. This probability was then interpreted as "You could fly every day for 26,000 years before your number was up." Comment on why this probability interpretation is misleading.

Short answer

The interpretation 'you could fly every day for 26,000 years before your number was up' is misleading because it implies that risk accumulates over time, whereas in reality, each flight is a separate, independent event with the same probability of a crash - 1 in 11 million.

Step-by-step solution

Understanding the Given Probability

The given odds of dying in a plane crash are 1 in 11 million. This means, statistically, for every 11 million plane rides taken, one might likely result in a fatality.

Interpreting The Statement

The statement 'You could fly every day for 26,000 years before your number was up.' assumes a simplistic interpretation of the given probability. It interprets that flying a plane every day over a span of approximately 26,000 years will only then potentially result in a fatal accident. This interpretation is derived by calculating the number of days in 26,000 years, which is approximately 9.5 million (26000 * 365), which is close to the odds mentioned (11 million). However, this does not mean that the actual chance of a crash increases each day an individual flies. It is important to remember that the 1 in 11 million probability is a statistical average calculated over a large number of events and doesn't necessarily predict what will happen in an individual case.

Explaining why the interpretation is misleading

It is misleading to interpret the probability this way because, in reality, each flight is an independent event. This means the probability does not accumulate over time. This means, your risk does not increase each time you fly, because each flight is a unique situation and holds the same probability.