A single-elimination tournament with four players is to be held. A total of
three games will be played. In Game 1 , the players seeded (rated) first and
fourth play. In Game 2 , the players seeded second and third play. In Game
\(3,\) the winners of Games 1 and 2 play, with the winner of Game 3 declared the
tournament winner. Suppose that the following probabilities are known:
\(P(\) Seed 1 defeats Seed 4\()=0.8\)
\(P(\) Seed 1 defeats \(\operatorname{Seed} 2)=0.6\)
\(P(\) Seed 1 defeats \(\operatorname{Seed} 3)=0.7\)
\(P(\) Seed 2 defeats \(\operatorname{Seed} 3)=0.6\)
\(P(\) Seed 2 defeats Seed 4\()=0.7\)
\(P(\) Seed 3 defeats Seed 4) \(=0.6\)
a. How would you use random digits to simulate Game 1 of this tournament?
b. How would you use random digits to simulate Game 2 of this tournament?
c. How would you use random digits to simulate the third game in the
tournament? (This will depend on the outcomes of Games 1 and \(2 .\) )
d. Simulate one complete tournament, giving an explanation for each step in
the process.
e. Simulate 10 tournaments, and use the resulting information to estimate the
probability that the first seed wins the tournament.
f. Ask four classmates for their simulation results. Along with your own
results, this should give you information on 50 simulated tournaments. Use
this information to estimate the probability that the first seed wins the
tournament.
g. Why do the estimated probabilities from Parts (e) and
(f) differ? Which do you think is a better estimate of the actual probability?
Explain.