Question

In 2000 , the chairman of a California ballot initiative campaign to add "none of the above" to the list of ballot options in all candidate races was quite critical of a Field poll that showed his measure trailing by 10 percentage points. The poll was based on a random sample of 1,000 registered voters in California. He is quoted by the Associated Press (January 30,2000 ) as saying, "Field's sample in that poll equates to one out of 17,505 voters." This was so dishonest, he added, that Field should get out of the polling business! If you worked on the Field poll, how would you respond to this criticism?

Short answer

To respond to the criticism, we can clarify the principle of statistical sampling and its practicality. Highlight the ample size of our sample, ensuring a small margin of error and high confidence level. We should affirm that our randomly selected sample is representative of the total registered voters in California, ensuring fair and unbiased results. Lastly, we can note our history of dependable outcomes through consistent methodologies.

Step-by-step solution

Understanding Samples

Firstly, it's crucial to understand the concept of sampling. When we want to understand a large population's stance, it's often impractical to reach out to each member. So, we randomly select a portion of the population, or 'sample', and analyze their responses as being representative of the larger group.

Determining Sample Size

In determining the sample size, we need to consider both the margin of error and confidence level desired in the results. For a population as large as California's registered voters, a sample size of 1,000 would give a very comfortable margin of error (around 3.1%) with a 95% confidence level.

Explain representative nature of the sample

A practical element of Field's response would be to explain the representative nature of the sample. Since the sample is random, it should be quite representative of the total population of registered California voters, mitigating fears of bias or unrepresentative results.

Emphasize Consistent methodology

Finally, as a member of the Field poll team, we could emphasize the consistent methodology employed. The same sampling method has been applied in various polls, giving accurate and reliable results over time. Field continues to be in business due to their proven reliability.