Chapter 8: Q96SE (page 452)
For two events A and B, suppose ,,Find.
Short Answer
The value of is 0.8.
Chapter 8: Q96SE (page 452)
For two events A and B, suppose ,,Find.
The value of is 0.8.
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Get started for freeHistory of corporate acquisitions. Refer to the Academy of Management Journal (August 2008) investigation of the performance and timing of corporate acquisitions, Exercise 2.12 (p. 74). Recall that the investigation discovered that in a random sample of 2,778 firms, 748 announced one or more acquisitions during the year 2000. Does the sample provide sufficient evidence to indicate that the true percentage of all firms that announced one or more acquisitions during the year 2000 is less than 30%? Use to make your decision.
A random sample of size n = 121 yielded = .88.
a. Is the sample size large enough to use the methods of this section to construct a confidence interval for p? Explain.
b. Construct a 90% confidence interval for p.
c. What assumption is necessary to ensure the validity of this confidence interval?
Forensic analysis of JFK assassination bullets. Following theassassination of President John F. Kennedy (JFK) in 1963, the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) conducted an official government investigation. The HSCA concluded that although there was a probable conspiracy involving at least one shooter in addition to Lee Harvey Oswald, the additional shooter missed all limousine occupants. A recent analysis of assassination bullet fragments, reported in the Annals of Applied Statistics(Vol. 1, 2007), contradicted these findings, concluding that the evidence used by the HSCA to rule out a second assassin is fundamentally flawed. It is well documented that at least two different bullets were the source of bullet fragments found after the assassination. Let E= {bullet evidence used by the HSCA}, T= {two bullets used in the assassination}, and= {more than two bullets used in the assassination}. Given the evidence (E), which is more likely to have occurred— two bullets used (T) or more than two bullets used ?
a. The researchers demonstrated that the ratio,, is less than 1. Explain why this result supports the theory of more than two bullets used in the assassination of JFK.
b. To obtain the result, part a, the researchers first showed that Demonstrate this equality using Bayes’s Rule.
Question: Performance ratings of government agencies. The U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requires government agencies to produce annual performance and accounting reports (PARS) each year. A research team at George Mason University evaluated the quality of the PARS for 24 government agencies (The Public Manager, Summer 2008), where evaluation scores ranged from 12 (lowest) to 60 (highest). The accompanying file contains evaluation scores for all 24 agencies for two consecutive years. (See Exercise 2.131, p. 132.) Data for a random sample of five of these agencies are shown in the accompanying table. Suppose you want to conduct a paired difference test to determine whether the true mean evaluation score of government agencies in year 2 exceeds the true mean evaluation score in year 1.
Source: J. Ellig and H. Wray, “Measuring Performance Reporting Quality,” The Public Manager, Vol. 37, No. 2, Summer 2008 (p. 66). Copyright © 2008 by Jerry Ellig. Used by permission of Jerry Ellig.
a. Explain why the data should be analyzedusing a paired difference test.
b. Compute the difference between the year 2 score and the year 1 score for each sampled agency.
c. Find the mean and standard deviation of the differences, part
b. Use the summary statistics, part c, to find the test statistic.
e. Give the rejection region for the test using a = .10.
f. Make the appropriate conclusion in the words of the problem.
Comparing taste-test rating protocols. Taste-testers of new food products are presented with several competing food samples and asked to rate the taste of each on a 9-point scale (where"dislike extremely" and"like extremely"). In the Journal of Sensory Studies (June 2014), food scientists compared two different taste-testing protocols. The sequential monadic (SM) method presented the samples one-at-a-time to the taster in a random order, while the rank rating (RR) method presented the samples to the taster all at once, side-by-side. Consider the following experiment (similar to the one conducted in the journal): 50 consumers of apricot jelly were asked to taste test five different varieties. Half the testers used the SM protocol and half used the RR protocol during testing. In a second experiment, 50 consumers of cheese were asked to taste-test four different varieties. Again, half the testers used the SM protocol and half used the RR protocol during testing. For each product (apricot jelly and cheese), the mean taste scores of the two protocols (SM and RR) were compared. The results are shown in the accompanying tables.
a. Consider the five varieties of apricot jelly. Identify the varieties for which you can conclude that "the mean taste scores of the two protocols (SM and RR) differ significantly at
b. Consider the four varieties of cheese. Identify the varieties for which you can conclude that "the mean taste scores of the two protocols (SM and RR) differ significantly at
c. Explain why the taste-test scores do not need to be normally distributed for the inferences, parts a and b, to be valid.
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