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Suppose that \({X_1},...,{X_n}\) are i.i.d. having the normal distribution with mean μ and precision \(\tau \) given (μ, \(\tau \) ). Let (μ, \(\tau \) ) have the usual improper prior. Let \({\sigma '^{2}} = \frac{{s_n^2}}{{n - 1}}\) . Prove that the posterior distribution of \(V = \left( {n - 1} \right){\sigma '^{2}}\tau \) is the χ2 distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom.

Short Answer

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the posterior distribution of \(V = \left( {n - 1} \right){\sigma '^2}\tau \) is the χ2 distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom.

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01

Given information

Suppose that \({X_1},...,{X_n}\) are i.i.d. having the normal distribution with mean μ and precision \(\tau \) given (μ, \(\tau \) ).It is required to prove that the posterior distribution of \(V = \left( {n - 1} \right){\sigma '^{2}}\tau \) is the χ2 distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom

02

Proof: the posterior distribution of \(V = \left( {n - 1} \right){\sigma '^{2}}\tau \)  is the χ2 distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom. 

Let \({X_1},...,{X_n}\) be iid random variables from distribution with unknown mean \(\mu \) and unknown variance \({\sigma ^2} > 0\) Suppose that for the joint prior distribution of \(\mu \) and \(\tau = \frac{1}{{{\sigma ^2}}}\) is from normal distribution with mean \({\mu _0}\) and precision \({\lambda _0}\tau \) and the marginal distribution is gamma distribution with parameters \({\alpha _0}\,\,\,\,{\rm{and}}\,\,\,{\beta _0}\) .

Then the prior distribution of \(\mu \) given \(\tau = \frac{1}{{{\sigma ^2}}}\)is from normal distribution with mean \({\mu _1}\) and \(\tau = \frac{1}{{{\sigma ^2}}}\)

Where \({\mu _1} = \frac{{{\lambda _0}{\mu _0} + n{{\bar x}_n}}}{{{\lambda _0} + n}}\) and \({\lambda _1} = {\lambda _0} + n\)

The marginal distribution of \(\tau \) is the gamma distribution with parameters \({\alpha _0} > 0,{\beta _0} > 0\) where

\(\begin{align}{\alpha _1} &= {\alpha _0} + \frac{n}{2},\\{\beta _1} &= {\beta _0} + \frac{1}{2}s_n^{2} + \frac{{n{\lambda _0}{{\left( {{{\bar x}_n} - {\mu _0}} \right)}^2}}}{{2\left( {{\lambda _0} + n} \right)}}\end{align}\)

It is to be noted that in \(V = \left( {n - 1} \right){\sigma '^2}\tau \)the random variable is \(\tau \) and the constant is \(\left( {n - 1} \right){\sigma '^2}\tau \) .The posterior distribution of \(\tau \) is the gamma distribution with parameters

\( - \frac{1}{2} + \frac{n}{2} = \frac{{n - 1}}{2}\,\,\,\,\,\,{\rm{and}}\,\,\,\,\frac{{s_n^2}}{2} + \frac{{n \times 0 \times {{\left( {\bar x - 0} \right)}^2}}}{{2\left( {0 + n} \right)}} = \frac{{s_n^2}}{2}\) ,by multiplying a gamma distribution with a constant we the distribution of V as the gamma distribution with parameters \(\frac{{n - 1}}{2}\,\,{\rm{and}}\,\,\,\frac{{s_n^2}}{2} \times \frac{1}{{\left( {n - 1} \right){{\sigma '}^2}}} = \frac{1}{2}\)

Hence the posterior distribution of \(V = \left( {n - 1} \right){\sigma '^2}\tau \) is the χ2 distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

We will draw a sample of size n = 11 from the normal distribution with the mean \({\bf{\mu }}\,\,{\bf{and}}\,\,{\bf{\tau }}\). We will use a natural conjugate prior for the parameters \({\bf{\mu }}\,\,{\bf{and}}\,\,{\bf{\tau }}\) from the normal-gamma family with hyperparameters \({{\bf{\alpha }}_{\bf{0}}}{\bf{ = 2,}}{{\bf{\beta }}_{\bf{0}}}{\bf{ = 1,}}{{\bf{\mu }}_{\bf{0}}}{\bf{ = 3}}{\bf{.5}}\,\,{\bf{and}}\,\,{{\bf{\lambda }}_{\bf{0}}}{\bf{ = 2}}\)

The sample yields an average of \(\overline {{{\bf{x}}_{\bf{n}}}} {\bf{ = 7}}{\bf{.2}}\,\,{\bf{and}}\,\,{{\bf{s}}_{\bf{n}}}^{\bf{2}}{\bf{ = 20}}{\bf{.3}}\)

a. Find the posterior hyperparameters.

b. Find an interval that contains 95% of the posterior distribution of \({\bf{\mu }}\).

For the conditions of Exercise 5, how large a random sample must be taken in order that\({{\bf{E}}_{\bf{p}}}\left( {{\bf{|}}{{{\bf{\bar X}}}_{\bf{n}}}{\bf{ - p}}{{\bf{|}}^{\bf{2}}}} \right) \le {\bf{0}}{\bf{.01}}\) whenp=0.2?

By using the table of the t distribution given in the back of this book, determine the value of the integral

\(\int\limits_{ - \infty }^{2.5} {\frac{{dx}}{{{{\left( {12 + {x^2}} \right)}^2}}}} \)

Question:Suppose that \({{\bf{X}}_{\bf{1}}}{\bf{, }}{\bf{. }}{\bf{. }}{\bf{. , }}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{n}}}\) form n Bernoulli trials for which the parameter p is unknown (0≤p≤1). Show that the expectation of every function \({\bf{\delta }}\left( {{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{1}}}{\bf{, }}{\bf{. }}{\bf{. }}{\bf{. , }}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{n}}}} \right)\)is a polynomial in p whose degree does not exceed n.

Suppose that \({X_1},...,{X_n}\) form a random sample from the normal distribution with mean μ and variance \({\sigma ^2}\) . Assuming that the sample size n is 16, determine the values of the following probabilities:

\(\begin{align}a.\,\,\,\,P\left( {\frac{1}{2}{\sigma ^2} \le \frac{1}{n}\sum\limits_{i = 1}^n {{{\left( {{X_i} - \mu } \right)}^2} \le 2{\sigma ^2}} } \right)\\b.\,\,\,\,P\left( {\frac{1}{2}{\sigma ^2} \le \frac{1}{n}\sum\limits_{i = 1}^n {{{\left( {{X_i} - {{\bar X}_n}} \right)}^2} \le 2{\sigma ^2}} } \right)\end{align}\)

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