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Suppose that the proportion of defective items in a large manufactured lot is 0.1. What is the smallest random sample of items that must be taken from the lot in order for the probability to be at least 0.99 that the proportion of defective items in the sample will be less than 0.13?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The smallest possible value of n is 542

Step by step solution

01

Given information

A huge produced batch contains 0.1 percent faulty goods.

The proportion of defective items is 0.13

02

Finding the smallest sample

The distribution of the proportion\({\bar X_n}\)of defective items in the sample will be approximately the normal distribution, with the mean is,

\(\mu = 0.1\)

The variance is,

\(\begin{array}{c}{\sigma ^2} = \frac{{0.1 \times 0.9}}{n}\\ = \frac{{0.09}}{n}\end{array}\)

The standard deviation is,

\(\begin{array}{c}\sigma = \sqrt {\frac{{0.09}}{n}} \\ = \frac{{0.3}}{{\sqrt n }}\end{array}\)

The distribution,

\(\begin{array}{c}Z = \frac{{\sqrt n \left( {{{\bar X}_n} - \mu } \right)}}{\sigma }\\ = \frac{{\sqrt n \left( {{{\bar X}_n} - 0.1} \right)}}{{0.3}}\end{array}\)

Then the distribution of Z will be an approximately standard normal distribution.

It follows that,

\(\begin{array}{c}\Pr \left( {{{\bar X}_n} < 0.13} \right) = \Pr \left( {Z < 0.1\sqrt n } \right)\\ \approx \Phi \left( {0.1\sqrt n } \right)\end{array}\)

But,

\(\begin{array}{c}\Phi \left( {0.1\sqrt n } \right) \ge 0.99\\0.1\sqrt n \ge {\Phi ^{ - 1}}\left( {0.99} \right)\\0.1\sqrt n \ge 2.327\\\sqrt n \ge 23.27\end{array}\)

\(\begin{array}{c}n \ge 541.4929\\n \ge 541.5\end{array}\)

Therefore, the smallest possible value of n is 542

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Let\({{\bf{X}}_{\bf{n}}}\)be a random variable having the binomial distribution with parameters n and\({{\bf{p}}_{\bf{n}}}\). Assume that\(\mathop {{\bf{lim}}}\limits_{{\bf{n}} \to \infty } \,\,{\bf{n}}{{\bf{p}}_{\bf{n}}}{\bf{ = \lambda }}\). Prove that the m.g.f. of\({{\bf{X}}_{\bf{n}}}\)converges to the m.g.f. of the Poisson distribution with mean ฮป.

It is said that a sequence of random variables\({Z_1},{Z_2},...\)converges to a constant b in quadratic mean if

\(\mathop {\lim }\limits_{n \to \infty } E\left[ {{{\left( {{Z_n} - b} \right)}^2}} \right] = 0\). (6.2.17)

Show that Eq. (6.2.17) is satisfied if and only if\(\mathop {\lim }\limits_{n \to \infty } E\left( {{Z_n}} \right) = b\)and\(\mathop {\lim }\limits_{x \to \infty } V\left( {{Z_n}} \right) = 0\).

Return to Example 6.2.7.

a. Prove that the \({\min _{s > 0}}\psi \left( s \right)\exp \left( { - snu} \right)\) equals \({q^n}\), where q is given in (6.2.16).

b. Prove that \(0 < q < 1\). Hint: First, show that\(0 < q < 1\)if \(u = 0\). Next, let\(x = up + 1 - p\)and show that \(\log \left( q \right)\)is a decreasing function of x.

Let f be a p.f. for a discrete distribution. Suppose that\(f\left( x \right) = 0\)for \(x \notin \left[ {0,1} \right]\). Prove that the variance of this distribution is at most\(\frac{1}{4}\). Hint: Prove that there is a distribution supported on just the two points\(\left\{ {0,1} \right\}\)with variance at least as large as f, and then prove that the variance of distribution supported on\(\left\{ {0,1} \right\}\)is at most\(\frac{1}{4}\).

Return to Example 6.2.6. Find the Chernoff bound for the probability in (6.2.7).

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