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Using the correction for continuity, determine the probability required in Exercise 2 of Sec. 6.3.

Short Answer

Expert verified

Probability that the number of people from the suburbs attending the concert will be fewer than 270 is \(0.0210\).

Step by step solution

01

Given information

75% of peoples from the metropolitan area live in the city.

25% of the people live in the suburbs.

02

Calculating the probability of the number of people from the suburbs attending the concert will be fewer than 270.

The total number of people X from the suburbs attending the concert can be regarded as the sum of 1200 independent random variables, each of which has a Bernoulli distribution with parameter\(p = \frac{1}{4}\)and\(q = 1 - p\)

Therefore, the distribution of X will be approximately normal distribution with mean,

\(\begin{array}{c}np = 1200\left( {\frac{1}{4}} \right)\\ = 300\end{array}\)

and the variance,

\(\begin{array}{c}npq = 1200\left( {\frac{1}{4}} \right)\left( {\frac{3}{4}} \right)\\ = 225\end{array}\)

Let\(Z = \frac{{\left( {X - 300} \right)}}{{15}}\)

Then the distribution of Z will be approximately a standard normal distribution.

Hence,

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm P}\left( {H < 270} \right) = {\rm P}\left( {X \le 269.5} \right)\\ = {\rm P}\left( {Z \le \frac{{269.5 - 300}}{{15}}} \right)\end{array}\)

\({\rm P}\left( {H < 270} \right) \approx 1 - \phi \left( {2.033} \right)\)

\({\rm P}\left( {H < 270} \right) \approx 0.0210\)

Therefore,Probability that the number of people from the suburbs attending the concert will be fewer than 270 is\(0.0210\).

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose that we model the occurrence of defects on a fabric manufacturing line as a Poisson process with rate 0.01 per square foot. Use the central limit theorem (both with and without the correction for continuity) to approximate the probability that one would find at least 15 defects in 2000 square feet of fabric.

Let X have the binomial distribution with parameters n and p. Let Y have the binomial distribution with parameters n and p/k with k > 1. Let \(Z = kY\).

a. Show that X and Z have the same mean.

b. Find the variances of X and Z. Show that, if p is small, then the variance of Z is approximately k times as large as the variance of X.

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Let Xbe a random variable having the uniform distribution on the interval\(\left[ {0,1} \right]\). We will construct a sequence of functions \({h_n}\left( x \right)\;for\;n = 1,2,...\)and define\({Z_n} = {h_n}\left( X \right)\). Each function \({h_n}\) will take only two values, 0 and 1. The set of x where \({h_n}\left( x \right) = 1\) is determined by dividing the interval \(\left[ {0,1} \right]\)into k non-overlapping subintervals of length\(\frac{1}{k}\;for\;k = 1,2,...\)arranging these intervals in sequence, and letting \({h_n}\left( x \right) = 1\) on the nth interval in the sequence for \(n = 1,2,...\)For each k, there are k non overlapping subintervals, so the number of subintervals with lengths \(1,\frac{1}{2},\frac{1}{3},...,\frac{1}{k}\) is \(1 + 2 + 3 + ... + k = \frac{{k\left( {k + 1} \right)}}{2}\)

The remainder of the construction is based on this formula. The first interval in the sequence has length 1, the next two have length ยฝ, the next three have length 1/3, etc.

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  2. For each\(n = 1,2,..\;\), let\({j_n} = n - \frac{{\left( {{k_n} - 1} \right){k_n}}}{2}\). Show that \({j_n}\) takes the values \(1,...,{k_n}\;\)as n runs through\(1 + \frac{{\left( {{k_n} - 1} \right){k_n}}}{2},...,\frac{{{k_n}\left( {{k_n} + 1} \right)}}{2}\).
  3. Define \({h_n}\left( x \right) = \left\{ \begin{array}{l}1\;if\;\frac{{\left( {{j_n} - 1} \right)}}{{{k_n}}} \le x < \frac{{{j_n}}}{{{k_n}}},\\0\;if\;not\end{array} \right.\)

Show that, for every \(x \in \left[ {0,1} \right),\;{h_n}\left( x \right) = 1\) for one and only one n among \(1 + \frac{{\left( {{k_n} - 1} \right){k_n}}}{2},...,\frac{{{k_n}\left( {{k_n} + 1} \right)}}{2}\)

  1. Show that \({Z_n} = {h_n}\left( X \right)\)takes the value 1 infinitely often with probability 1 \(\)
  1. Show that(6.2.18) holds.
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In this exercise, we construct an example of a sequence of random variables\({{\bf{Z}}_{\bf{n}}}\)that\({{\bf{Z}}_{\bf{n}}}\)converges to 0 with probability 1 but\({{\bf{Z}}_{\bf{n}}}\)fails to converge to 0 in a quadratic mean. Let X be a random variable with a uniform interval distribution [0, 1]. Define the sequence\({{\bf{Z}}_{\bf{n}}}\)by\({{\bf{Z}}_{\bf{n}}}{\bf{ = }}{{\bf{n}}^{\bf{2}}}\)if\({\bf{0 < X < }}{\raise0.7ex\hbox{\({\bf{1}}\)} \!\mathord{\left/{\vphantom {{\bf{1}} {\bf{n}}}}\right.}\!\lower0.7ex\hbox{\({\bf{n}}\)}}\) and\({{\bf{Z}}_{\bf{n}}}{\bf{ = 0}}\)otherwise.

a. Prove that\({{\bf{Z}}_{\bf{n}}}\)converges to 0 with probability 1.

b. Prove that\({{\bf{Z}}_{\bf{n}}}\)it does not converge to 0 in quadratic mean.

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