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Mr. Smith works on a temporary basis. The mean length of each job he gets is three months. If the amount of time he spends between jobs is exponentially distributed with mean 2, then at what rate does \(\mathrm{Mr}\). Smith get new jobs?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Mr. Smith gets new jobs at a rate of 6 jobs per year.

Step by step solution

01

Convert the average time between jobs to rate parameter

According to the problem, the average time Mr. Smith spends between jobs is 2 months, and this follows an exponential distribution. The exponential distribution has a mean equal to the reciprocal of its rate parameter (\(\lambda\)). Thus, we need to find the rate parameter (\(\lambda\)) by taking the reciprocal of the mean. Mean = 1 / \(\lambda\) Plugging in the given mean(2) in the formula, we'll get; 2 = 1 / \(\lambda\)
02

Solve for the rate parameter \(\lambda\)

Now we just need to solve the equation for the rate parameter, \(\lambda\): 2 = 1 / \(\lambda\) Multiplying both sides of the equation by \(\lambda\), we'll get: 2\(\lambda\) = 1 Now, we just need to divide both sides of the equation by 2 to get \(\lambda\): \(\lambda\) = 1 / 2
03

Write the rate in jobs per year

We know that \(\lambda\) represents the rate that Mr. Smith gets new jobs, and the result 1/2 means 1 new job every 2 months. But to get the rate per year, we need to multiply it by the total months in a year. Rate per year = \(\lambda \times\) (number of months in a year) There are 12 months in a year, so: Rate per year = \(\frac{1}{2} \times 12\)
04

Calculate the rate per year

Now just solve for the rate per year by multiplying the rate we found earlier by the total number of months in a year: Rate per year = \(\frac{1}{2} \times 12 = 6\) So, Mr. Smith gets new jobs at a rate of 6 jobs per year.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Models
In the world of mathematics and statistics, a probability model is a mathematical representation of a random phenomenon. These models are constructed to analyze and predict the likelihood of various outcomes. A classic example of a probability model is the flipping of a coin, where there are two possible outcomes: heads or tails, each with a probability of 0.5, assuming the coin is fair.

Probability models can be used for more complex situations as well, such as predicting the weather, assessing risk in insurance, or even estimating the time between job assignments, as in the case study of Mr. Smith's employment. These models allow us to quantify uncertainty and make informed decisions based on the structure and parameters of the model.
Exponential Distribution
The exponential distribution is a type of probability model that is especially useful for modeling the time between events in a continuous-time Poisson process. This particular distribution is defined by a single parameter: the rate parameter \(\lambda\). It provides us with a way to model events that are independent and occur at a constant average rate across time.

In our scenario with Mr. Smith, the exponential distribution describes the time he spends between jobs. When the mean time between jobs is known (2 months), the rate parameter \(\lambda\) is simply the reciprocal of this mean (\(\lambda = \frac{1}{\text{mean}}\)). This parameter \(\lambda\) is essential because it characterizes the entire distribution, giving us the average rate at which events (in this case, job acquisitions) are occurring.
Mean Time Between Events
The mean time between events is a critical concept in various probability distributions, including the exponential distribution. It represents the average time that elapses from one event to the next. This average time can be interpreted as the reciprocal of the rate parameter in the exponential distribution (\(\text{mean} = \frac{1}{\lambda}\)).

Understanding the mean time between events is vital for planning and forecasting in fields like supply chain management, customer service, and workforce management. For Mr. Smith, knowing the mean time between jobs helps him manage his finances and expectations regarding work continuity. Moreover, converting the mean time to a rate parameter and then to an annual rate, as demonstrated in the provided exercise, serves to translate abstract concepts into practical measures applicable to real-life situations, like how frequently one can expect to be employed in a given year.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

For an interarrival distribution \(F\) having mean \(\mu\), we defined the equilibrium distribution of \(F\), denoted \(F_{e}\), by $$ F_{e}(x)=\frac{1}{\mu} \int_{0}^{x}[1-F(y)] d y $$ (a) Show that if \(F\) is an exponential distribution, then \(F=F_{e}\). (b) If for some constant \(c\), $$ F(x)=\left\\{\begin{array}{ll} 0, & x

For a renewal reward process consider $$ W_{n}=\frac{R_{1}+R_{2}+\cdots+R_{n}}{X_{1}+X_{2}+\cdots+X_{n}} $$ where \(W_{n}\) represents the average reward earned during the first \(n\) cycles. Show that \(W_{n} \rightarrow E[R] / E[X]\) as \(n \rightarrow \infty\)

Consider a single-server queueing system in which customers arrive in accordance with a renewal process. Each customer brings in a random amount of work, chosen independently according to the distribution \(G\). The server serves one customer at a time. However, the server processes work at rate \(i\) per unit time whenever there are \(i\) customers in the system. For instance, if a customer with workload 8 enters service when there are three other customers waiting in line, then if no one else arrives that customer will spend 2 units of time in service. If another customer arrives after 1 unit of time, then our customer will spend a total of \(1.8\) units of time in service provided no one else arrives. Let \(W_{i}\) denote the amount of time customer \(i\) spends in the system. Also, define \(E[W]\) by $$ E[W]=\lim _{n \rightarrow \infty}\left(W_{1}+\cdots+W_{n}\right) / n $$ and so \(E[W]\) is the average amount of time a customer spends in the system. Let \(N\) denote the number of customers that arrive in a busy period. (a) Argue that $$ E[W]=E\left[W_{1}+\cdots+W_{N}\right] / E[N] $$ Let \(L_{i}\) denote the amount of work customer \(i\) brings into the system; and so the \(L_{i}, i \geqslant 1\), are independent random variables having distribution \(G\). (b) Argue that at any time \(t\), the sum of the times spent in the system by all arrivals prior to \(t\) is equal to the total amount of work processed by time \(t .\) Hint: Consider the rate at which the server processes work. (c) Argue that $$ \sum_{i=1}^{N} W_{i}=\sum_{i=1}^{N} L_{i} $$ (d) Use Wald's equation (see Exercise 13\()\) to conclude that $$ E[W]=\mu $$ where \(\mu\) is the mean of the distribution \(G .\) That is, the average time that customers spend in the system is equal to the average work they bring to the system.

If the mean-value function of the renewal process \(\\{N(t), t \geqslant 0\\}\) is given by \(m(t)=\) \(t / 2, t \geqslant 0\), what is \(P[N(5)=0\\} ?\)

Let \(\left\\{N_{1}(t), t \geqslant 0\right\\}\) and \(\left[N_{2}(t), t \geqslant 0\right\\}\) be independent renewal processes. Let \(N(t)=\) \(N_{1}(t)+N_{2}(t)\) (a) Are the interarrival times of \(\\{N(t), t \geqslant 0\\}\) independent? (b) Are they identically distributed? (c) Is \(\\{N(t), t \geqslant 0\\}\) a renewal process?

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