Chapter 3: Problem 77
Show that (a) \(\quad E[X Y \mid Y=y]=y E[X \mid Y=y]\) (b) \(E[g(X, Y) \mid Y=y]=E[g(X, y) \mid Y=y]\) (c) \(E[X Y]=E[Y E[X \mid Y]]\)
Chapter 3: Problem 77
Show that (a) \(\quad E[X Y \mid Y=y]=y E[X \mid Y=y]\) (b) \(E[g(X, Y) \mid Y=y]=E[g(X, y) \mid Y=y]\) (c) \(E[X Y]=E[Y E[X \mid Y]]\)
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Get started for freeA coin that comes up heads with probability \(p\) is continually flipped until the pattern \(\mathrm{T}, \mathrm{T}, \mathrm{H}\) appears. (That is, you stop flipping when the most recent flip lands heads, and the two immediately preceding it lands tails.) Let \(X\) denote the number of flips made, and find \(E[X]\).
An individual traveling on the real line is trying to reach the origin. However, the larger the desired step, the greater is the variance in the result of that step. Specifically, whenever the person is at location \(x\), he next moves to a location having mean 0 and variance \(\beta x^{2}\). Let \(X_{n}\) denote the position of the individual after having taken \(n\) steps. Supposing that \(X_{0}=x_{0}\), find (a) \(E\left[X_{n}\right]\); (b) \(\operatorname{Var}\left(X_{n}\right)\)
(a) From the results of Section \(3.6 .3\) we can conclude that there are \(\left(\begin{array}{c}n+m-1 \\ m-1\end{array}\right)\) nonnegative integer valued solutions of the equation \(x_{1}+\cdots+x_{m}=n\) Prove this directly. (b) How many positive integer valued solutions of \(x_{1}+\cdots+x_{m}=n\) are there? Hint: Let \(y_{i}=x_{i}-1\). (c) For the Bose-Einstein distribution, compute the probability that exactly \(k\) of the \(X_{i}\) are equal to 0 .
In a knockout tennis tournament of \(2^{n}\) contestants, the players are paired and play a match. The losers depart, the remaining \(2^{n-1}\) players are paired, and they play a match. This continues for \(n\) rounds, after which a single player remains unbeaten and is declared the winner. Suppose that the contestants are numbered 1 through \(2^{n}\), and that whenever two players contest a match, the lower numbered one wins with probability \(p\). Also suppose that the pairings of the remaining players are always done at random so that all possible pairings for that round are equally likely. (a) What is the probability that player 1 wins the tournament? (b) What is the probability that player 2 wins the tournament? Hint: Imagine that the random pairings are done in advance of the tournament. That is, the first-round pairings are randomly determined; the \(2^{n-1}\) first-round pairs are then themselves randomly paired, with the winners of each pair to play in round 2; these \(2^{n-2}\) groupings (of four players each) are then randomly paired, with the winners of each grouping to play in round 3, and so on. Say that players \(i\) and \(j\) are scheduled to meet in round \(k\) if, provided they both win their first \(k-1\) matches, they will meet in round \(k\). Now condition on the round in which players 1 and 2 are scheduled to meet.
In the list problem, when the \(P_{i}\) are known, show that the best ordering (best in the sense of minimizing the expected position of the element requested) is to place the elements in decreasing order of their probabilities. That is, if \(P_{1}>P_{2}>\cdots>P_{n}\) show that \(1,2, \ldots, n\) is the best ordering.
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