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The article "Thrillers" (Newsweek, April 22,1985 ) stated, "Surveys tell us that more than half of America's college graduates are avid readers of mystery novels." Let \(\pi\) denote the actual proportion of college graduates who are avid readers of mystery novels. Consider a sample proportion \(p\) that is based on a random sample of 225 college graduates. a. If \(\pi=.5\), what are the mean value and standard deviation of \(p ?\) Answer this question for \(\pi=.6\). Does \(p\) have approximately a normal distribution in both cases? Explain. b. Calculate \(P(p \geq .6)\) for both \(\pi=.5\) and \(\pi=.6\). c. Without doing any calculations, how do you think the probabilities in Part (b) would change if \(n\) were 400 rather than \(225 ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Mean and standard deviation when \(\pi=0.5\) are 0.5 and 0.0333, and when \(\pi=0.6\) are 0.6 and 0.0327. In both cases, the distribution is approximately normal because in both cases \(np\) and \(n(1-p)\) are both greater than 5. \nb. The probabilities \(P(p \geq 0.6)\) when \(\pi=0.5\) and \(\pi=0.6\) can be calculated converting \(p\) to a \(z\) score and using standard normal tables. \nc. Without calculation, the probability \(P(p \geq 0.6)\) under both conditions are likely to decrease if \(n\) increases to 400 from 225 because increasing \(n\) decreases the spread of the sampling distribution.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate mean and standard deviation for π=0.5

The mean of the sample proportion is equal to the population proportion \(π\), so the mean when \(π=0.5\) is \(0.5\). The standard deviation of the sample proportion is \(\sqrt{(π(1-π))/n}\), so when \(π=0.5\) and \(n=225\), the standard deviation is \(\sqrt{(0.5 * 0.5)/225} = 0.0333\).
02

Check for normality

For the distribution of the sample proportion to be approximately normal, \(np\) and \(n(1-p)\) should both be greater than 5. In this case, for \(π=0.5\), \(225*0.5 = 112.5\), so the distribution is approximately normal.
03

Repeat for π=0.6

Following the same method, the mean and standard deviation when \(π=0.6\) are \(0.6\) and \(\sqrt{(0.6 * 0.4)/225} = 0.0327\) respectively. Checking for normality, \(np = 225*0.6 = 135\), so the distribution is again approximately normal.
04

Calculate probabilities

The probability \(P(p \geq 0.6)\) when \(π=0.5\) and \(\pi=0.6\) can be calculated using standard normal tables, but it requires converting \(p\) to a \(z\) score first. The formula for the \(z\) score is \(z = (p - π) / sd\). After calculating the \(z\) scores, you can refer to the standard normal tables for the corresponding probabilities.
05

Discuss effect of increasing \(n\)

Without calculation, increasing the sample size \(n\) to 400 from 225 will make the standard deviation smaller, because standard deviation is inversely related to \(n\). This will decrease the spread of the sampling distribution, and thus the probabilities \(P(p \geq 0.6)\) under both conditions are likely to decrease.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Let \(x\) denote the time (in minutes) that it takes a fifth-grade student to read a certain passage. Suppose that the mean value and standard deviation of \(x\) are \(\mu=2 \mathrm{~min}\) and \(\sigma=0.8\) min, respectively. a. If \(\bar{x}\) is the sample average time for a random sample of \(n=9\) students, where is the \(\bar{x}\) distribution centered, and how much does it spread out about the center (as described by its standard deviation)? b. Repeat Part (a) for a sample of size of \(n=20\) and again for a sample of size \(n=100\). How do the centers and spreads of the three \(\bar{x}\) distributions compare to one another? Which sample size would be most likely to result in an \(\bar{x}\) value close to \(\mu\), and why?

For each of the following statements, identify the number that appears in boldface type as the value of either a population characteristic or a statistic: a. A department store reports that \(84 \%\) of all customers who use the store's credit plan pay their bills on time. b. A sample of 100 students at a large university had a mean age of \(24.1\) years. c. The Department of Motor Vehicles reports that \(22 \%\) of all vehicles registered in a particular state are imports. d. A hospital reports that based on the 10 most recent cases, the mean length of stay for surgical patients is \(6.4\) days. e. A consumer group, after testing 100 batteries of a certain brand, reported an average life of \(\mathbf{6 3} \mathrm{hr}\) of use.

The thickness (in millimeters) of the coating applied to disk drives is a characteristic that determines the usefulness of the product. When no unusual circumstances are present, the thickness \((x)\) has a normal distribution with a mean of \(3 \mathrm{~mm}\) and a standard deviation of \(0.05\) \(\mathrm{mm}\). Suppose that the process will be monitored by selecting a random sample of 16 drives from each shift's production and determining \(\bar{x}\), the mean coating thickness for the sample. a. Describe the sampling distribution of \(\bar{x}\) (for a sample of size 16 ). b. When no unusual circumstances are present, we expect \(\bar{x}\) to be within \(3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\) of \(3 \mathrm{~mm}\), the desired value. An \(\bar{x}\) value farther from 3 than \(3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\) is interpreted as an indication of a problem that needs attention. Compute \(3 \pm 3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\). (A plot over time of \(\bar{x}\) values with horizontal lines drawn at the limits \(\mu \pm 3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\) is called a process control chart.) c. Referring to Part (b), what is the probability that a sample mean will be outside \(3 \pm 3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\) just by chance (i.e., when there are no unusual circumstances)? d. Suppose that a machine used to apply the coating is out of adjustment, resulting in a mean coating thickness of \(3.05 \mathrm{~mm}\). What is the probability that a problem will be detected when the next sample is taken? (Hint: This will occur if \(\bar{x}>3+3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\) or \(\bar{x}<3-3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\) when \(\mu=\) 3.05.) b. When no unusual circumstances are present, we expect \(\bar{x}\) to be within \(3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\) of \(3 \mathrm{~mm}\), the desired value. An \(\bar{x}\) value farther from 3 than \(3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\) is interpreted as an indication of a problem that needs attention. Compute \(3 \pm 3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\). (A plot over time of \(\bar{x}\) values with horizontal lines drawn at the limits \(\mu \pm 3 \sigma_{\bar{x}}\) is called a process control chart.)

Suppose that a particular candidate for public office is in fact favored by \(48 \%\) of all registered voters in the district. A polling organization will take a random sample of 500 voters and will use \(p\), the sample proportion, to estimate \(\pi\). What is the approximate probability that \(p\) will be greater than .5, causing the polling organization to incorrectly predict the result of the upcoming election?

A random sample is to be selected from a population that has a proportion of successes \(\pi=.65 .\) Determine the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of \(p\) for each of the following sample sizes: a. \(n=10\) b. \(n=20\) c. \(n=30\) d. \(n=50\) e. \(n=100\) f. \(n=200\)

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