Question

"More than half of California's doctors say they are so frustrated with managed care they will quit, retire early, or leave the state within three years." This conclusion from an article titled "Doctors Feeling Pessimistic, Study Finds" (San Luis Obispo Tribune, July 15,2001 ) was based on a mail survey conducted by the California Medical Association. Surveys were mailed to 19,000 California doctors, and 2000 completed surveys were returned. Describe any concerns you have regarding the conclusion drawn.

Short answer

The conclusion drawn from the incomplete response from the mail survey has been affected by voluntary response bias and nonresponse bias, which affects its accuracy and generalizability to the entire population of California's doctors. Therefore, the conclusion that 'More than half of California's doctors say they are so frustrated with managed care they will quit, retire early, or leave the state within three years' might not be accurate.

Step-by-step solution

Analyze the Survey Method

Here it's stated that a mail survey was conducted by the California Medical Association. Considering the method used, it's important to think about how representative the sample is. This type of survey relies on voluntaryresponse sampling, which is a type of non-probability sampling. It is subject to voluntary response bias, which occurs when individuals with strong feelings about a topic are more likely to respond.

Analyze the Response Rate

The response rate of the survey is calculated by dividing the number of returned completed surveys by the number of surveys that were mailed out. The response rate is 2000 out of 19000, or about 10.5 %. This low response rate exposes the survey to nonresponse bias, which happens when a large fraction of those sampled fails to respond.

Analyze the Result Interpretation

The conclusion that more than half of California's doctors will quit, retire early, or leave the state is based on the responses from the 2000 doctors who completed the survey. Given the biases and low response rate, it can't be definitively concluded that the sample accurately represents the population. It's possible those who responded had particularly strong feelings or experiences with managed care that prompted them to participate, while many who didn't feel as strongly did not respond.