Question

In a food processing and packaging plant, there are, on the average, two packaging machine breakdowns per week. Assume the weekly machine breakdowns follow a Poisson distribution. a. What is the probability that there are no machine breakdowns in a given week? b. Calculate the probability that there are no more than two machine breakdowns in a given week.

Short answer

Answer: The probability of no machine breakdowns in a given week is approximately 13.53%. The probability of no more than 2 machine breakdowns in a given week is approximately 67.67%.

Step-by-step solution

Required Concepts

The given problem follows the Poisson probability distribution. The probability mass function (PMF) of a Poisson distribution is given by: P(x) = (e^(-λ) * λ^x) / x! Where, P(x) = Probability of x machine breakdowns λ = Average number of machine breakdowns per week (λ = 2) e = Base of natural logarithm (e ≈ 2.71828) x = Number of machine breakdowns in a given week #a. We need to find the probability of no machine breakdowns in a given week. So, x = 0.

Use the Poisson PMF with x = 0 and λ = 2

The PMF of the Poisson distribution with x = 0 and λ= 2 is given by: P(0) = (e^(-2) * 2^0) / 0!

Calculate the probability

Now, we will calculate the probability: P(0) = (2.71828^(-2) * 1) / 1 P(0) ≈ 0.1353 The probability of no machine breakdowns in a given week is approximately 0.1353 or 13.53%. #b. We are asked to find the probability of no more than 2 machine breakdowns in a given week. So, x = 0, 1, and 2.

Use the Poisson PMF for x = 0, 1, and 2

For x = 0, 1, and 2, we will use the Poisson PMF: P(0) = (e^(-2) * 2^0) / 0! P(1) = (e^(-2) * 2^1) / 1! P(2) = (e^(-2) * 2^2) / 2!

Calculate the probabilities

Calculate the individual probabilities: P(0) ≈ 0.1353 (calculated previously) P(1) = (2.71828^(-2) * 2) / 1 ≈ 0.2707 P(2) = (2.71828^(-2) * 4) / 2 ≈ 0.2707

Calculate the probability of no more than 2 breakdowns

Now, we will sum up the probabilities: P(x ≤ 2) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) P(x ≤ 2) ≈ 0.1353 + 0.2707 + 0.2707 P(x ≤ 2) ≈ 0.6767 The probability of no more than 2 machine breakdowns in a given week is approximately 0.6767 or 67.67%.

Key concepts

Probability Mass Function

The Probability Mass Function (PMF) is a mathematical function used to describe the probability of a specific number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space under certain conditions. In the context of a Poisson distribution, the PMF is especially useful to determine the likelihood of a certain number of events occurring when you know the average rate of occurrence.

For the Poisson distribution, the PMF is given by the formula:

• \[ P(x) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \cdot \lambda^x}{x!} \]

In this formula:

• \( P(x) \) is the probability of observing \( x \) events (e.g., machine breakdowns) in the given interval.
• \( \lambda \) represents the average number of events (here, 2 machine breakdowns per week).
• \( e \) is the base of the natural logarithm, approximately \( 2.71828 \).
• \( x \) denotes the number of events for which you want to calculate the probability.
• \( x! \) is the factorial of \( x \), representing the product of all positive integers up to \( x \).

Understanding this function allows you to calculate the probability of a specific number of events, given the average rate, effectively capturing how likely or common various outcomes are.

Machine Breakdowns

In the domain of industrial operations, machine breakdowns can significantly impact productivity. Understanding the distribution of these breakdowns over time helps in planning and resource allocation, reducing downtime and ensuring efficient operations.

The scenario presented involves a packaging machine that, on average, breaks down twice a week. To determine the probability of different breakdown occurrences, the Poisson distribution is utilized as it suits scenarios where events happen independently at a constant average rate. This kind of statistical insight can guide maintenance schedules and parts stocking.

By analyzing the breakdown pattern, for instance, it becomes clearer if unexpected situations frequently disrupt plant operations or if breakdowns align with the historical average. Organizations can leverage such data-driven insights to implement predictive maintenance, where maintenance efforts are more precise and targeted, eventually maintaining productivity at optimal levels.

Probability Calculation

Probability calculation is an intrinsic part of statistics that quantifies the likelihood of particular outcomes. In exercises like determining machine breakdown probabilities, understanding and calculating probabilities allows decision-makers to anticipate various outcomes credibly.

For example, to find the probability of no machine breakdowns in a week, we set \( x = 0 \) in the Poisson PMF, which results in:

• \[ P(0) = \frac{e^{-2} \cdot 2^0}{0!} \approx 0.1353 \]

This result implies around a 13.53% chance of experiencing no breakdowns in the week.

Similarly, to find the probability of no more than two breakdowns, calculations sum the probabilities for breakdowns of 0, 1, and 2:

• \[ P(x \leq 2) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) \]
• \[ P(x \leq 2) = 0.1353 + 0.2707 + 0.2707 \approx 0.6767 \]

This provides a 67.67% likelihood of having two or fewer breakdowns in a week, aiding in realistic expectation setting for maintenance needs. Understanding this process strengthens clarity on how likely various operational scenarios are, equipping teams to prepare strategically for potential disruptions.