Question

Election 2012 During the spring of 2010 , the news media were already conducting opinion polls that tracked the fortunes of the major candidates hoping to become the president of the United States. One such poll conducted by CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll showed the following results: "If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for. Obama, the Democrat, or (see below]. the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward? The results were based on a sample taken April \(9-11\), \(2010,\) of 907 registered voters nationwide. a. If the pollsters were planning to use these results to predict the outcome of the 2012 presidential election, describe the population of interest to them. b. Describe the actual population from which the sample was drawn. c. Some pollsters prefer to select a sample of "likely" voters. What is the difference between "registered voters" and "likely voters"? Why is this important? d. Is the sample selected by the pollsters representative of the population described in part a? Explain.

Short answer

Answer: Registered voters are individuals who have completed the process of registering to vote and are legally allowed to cast a ballot in an election. Likely voters, on the other hand, are a subset of registered voters who are more likely to actually vote in an election based on factors such as past voting history, political engagement, and motivation. Pollsters often prefer to sample likely voters because they provide a more accurate representation of the actual voting population on Election Day.

Step-by-step solution

Population of Interest

The population of interest for the pollsters would be all the eligible voters (i.e., citizens of the United States who are of voting age) in the 2012 presidential election. This includes anyone who might vote in the election, regardless of their current registration status or likeliness to vote. #b. Describe the actual population from which the sample was drawn#

Actual Sample Population

The actual population from which the sample was drawn in this poll was 907 registered voters nationwide (i.e., individuals who are currently registered to vote in the United States). It is important to note that this sample includes only registered voters and not all eligible voters. #c. Difference between registered voters and likely voters#

Registered Voters vs. Likely Voters

Registered voters are individuals who have completed the process of registering to vote and are legally allowed to cast a ballot in an election. Likely voters, on the other hand, are a subset of registered voters who are more likely to actually vote in an election based on factors such as past voting history, political engagement, and motivation. Pollsters often prefer to sample likely voters because they provide a more accurate representation of the actual voting population on Election Day. #d. Representativeness of the sample#

Sample Representativeness

The sample selected by the pollsters (907 registered voters) might not be completely representative of the population described in part a (all eligible voters). Since the sample only includes registered voters, it excludes individuals who are eligible but not yet registered to vote, possibly underestimating the preferences of certain demographics or groups. Additionally, the sample does not specifically focus on likely voters; therefore, it may overestimate the preferences of people who are registered but less likely to vote. To improve representativeness, the pollsters could sample both registered and unregistered eligible voters or focus on likely voters.

Key concepts

Population of Interest

When conducting an opinion poll for an election, it's crucial to determine the "population of interest." This term refers to the entire group of individuals the researchers are ultimately interested in understanding. In the context of the 2012 presidential election poll, the population of interest included all eligible voters—this means every U.S. citizen of voting age, regardless of whether they were registered to vote or not.

The concept of population of interest is important because it defines the scope of the poll's results. By aiming to include all potential voters, the poll results are intended to reflect a broad perspective. However, if the sample does not adequately represent this larger group, the poll may not accurately predict the election's outcome.

Registered Voters vs. Likely Voters

Understanding the difference between registered voters and likely voters is essential in polling. Registered voters are individuals who have signed up to legally vote in an election. During polls such as the one conducted for the 2012 election, these individuals are typically included as they have the legitimate right to participate in the voting process.

Likely voters, however, constitute a more refined group. These are registered voters who are expected, based on historical data and behavioral patterns, to cast their vote. Pollsters often prioritize surveying likely voters, as this group tends to provide a more accurate prediction of actual voter turnout on Election Day. Factors like past voting behavior, expressed intention to vote, and current political engagement help identify likely voters.

• Registered Voters: All individuals legally registered to vote.
• Likely Voters: Subset of registered voters with a high probability of casting a vote.

This distinction is crucial because including likely voters may enhance the reliability of the poll results, aligning them more closely with actual election outcomes.

Sample Representativeness

Sample representativeness refers to how well a sample reflects the overall population of interest. For the 2012 election opinion poll, the aim was an accurate snapshot of all eligible voters. Unfortunately, using only registered voters as the sample may not fully capture this breadth. This oversight can lead to biases in understanding public opinion.

One potential issue is that the sample might not account for eligible but unregistered voters, who could have differing political views. Additionally, the focus on registered rather than likely voters might skew the results towards those less motivated to turn out on Election Day, thus misrepresenting actual voter preferences.

To improve representativeness, pollsters could include not only registered voters but also eligible unregistered voters. Alternatively, honing in on likely voters could furnish a clearer insight into the probable election outcome. Ensuring that a sample accurately mirrors the population of interest is key to reliable poll results.