Epidemics. The use of mathematical methods to study the spread of contagious
diseases goes
back at least to some work by Daniel Bernoulli in 1760 on smallpox. In more
recent years many
mathematical models have been proposed and studied for many different
diseases. Deal with a few of the simpler models and the conclusions that can
be drawn from them. Similar models have also been used to describe the spread
of rumors and of consumer products.
Some diseases (such as typhoid fever) are spread largely by carriers,
individuals who can transmit the disease, but who exhibit no overt symptoms.
Let \(x\) and \(y,\) respectively, denote the proportion of susceptibles and
carriers in the population. Suppose that carriers are identified and removed
from the population at a rate \(\beta,\) so
$$
d y / d t=-\beta y
$$
Suppose also that the disease spreads at a rate proportional to the product of
\(x\) and \(y\); thus
$$
d x / d t=\alpha x y
$$
(a) Determine \(y\) at any time \(t\) by solving Eq. (i) subject to the initial
condition \(y(0)=y_{0}\).
(b) Use the result of part (a) to find \(x\) at any time \(t\) by solving Eq. (ii)
subject to the initial condition \(x(0)=x_{0}\).
(c) Find the proportion of the population that escapes the epidemic by finding
the limiting value of \(x\) as \(t \rightarrow \infty\).