Epidemics. The use of mathematical methods to study the spread of contagious
diseases goes
back at least to some work by Daniel Bernoulli in 1760 on smallpox. In more
recent years many
mathematical models have been proposed and studied for many different
diseases. Deal with a few of the simpler models and the conclusions that can
be drawn from them. Similar models have also been used to describe the spread
of rumors and of consumer products.
Suppose that a given population can be divided into two parts: those who have
a given disease and can infect others, and those who do not have it but are
susceptible. Let \(x\) be the proportion of susceptible individuals and \(y\) the
proportion of infectious individuals; then \(x+y=1 .\) Assume that the disease
spreads by contact between sick and well members of the population, and that
the rate of spread \(d y / d t\) is proportional to the number of such contacts.
Further, assume that members of both groups move about freely among each
other, so the number of contacts is proportional to the product of \(x\) and \(y
.\) since \(x=1-y\) we obtain the initial value problem
$$
d y / d t=\alpha y(1-y), \quad y(0)=y_{0}
$$
where \(\alpha\) is a positive proportionality factor, and \(y_{0}\) is the
initial proportion of infectious individuals.
(a) Find the equilibrium points for the differential equation (i) and
determine whether each is asymptotically stable, semistable, or unstable.
(b) Solve the initial value problem (i) and verify that the conclusions you
reached in part (a) are correct. Show that \(y(t) \rightarrow 1\) as \(t
\rightarrow \infty,\) which means that ultimately the disease spreads through
the entire population.