Question

The classic album Kind of Blue by Miles Davis lists five songs with their lengths in parentheses. If your music player is currently playing this album in shuffle mode, what is the probability, given as a percentage, that when you plug in your earphones you hear: (a) So What \((9: 02)\) (b) Freddie Freeloader \((9: 33)\) (c) Blue in Green (5:26) (d) All Blue (11:31) (e) Flamenco Sketches \((9: 25)\).

Short answer

Answer: The probability that a particular song will play is 20%.

Step-by-step solution

Understand the concept of probability

Probability is the study of events and their likelihood to occur. Here, the 'event' is the occurrence of a particular song playing.

Identify the total number of outcomes

There are 5 songs in this album. Therefore, if the music player is shuffling, one of these 5 songs can play. Hence, the total number of outcomes is 5.

Identify the desirable outcome or event

The desirable outcomes or events in this scenario would be each song itself: a) So What, b) Freddie Freeloader, c) Blue in Green, d) All Blue, and e) Flamenco Sketches. Each is one separate desirable outcome.

Calculate the probabilities

The probability of an event is given by \frac{Number\: of\: desirable\: outcomes}{Total\: number\: of\: outcomes}. Since there is only one desirable outcome (the specific song playing) for each event, the probability of each song is \frac{1}{5}, which translates to 20%.

Express in the required format

This can be expressed as a percentage. So, the probability that a particular song will play when the music player is shuffling is 20%.

Key concepts

Probability Calculation

Probability calculation is fundamentally about determining the likelihood of an event happening. In everyday terms, it helps you understand how probable something is. Let's consider a simple exercise where you might use probability: your music player. Imagine it shuffling through a number of songs.
The process starts by recognizing what you're trying to find out. In this case, you want to know the probability of a specific song playing when the player shuffles. Here's how you get there:

• Determine the total number of outcomes: This is the number of different songs available. In our scenario, there are 5 songs on the playlist.
• Identify the desirable outcome: This is the particular song you are interested in hearing.
• Calculate the probability: Use the formula \( \frac{\text{Number of desirable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of outcomes}} \). Since we want any one specific song, there’s only one desirable outcome per scenario.

You convert the fraction to get the probability in percentage terms. By applying the formula, each song has a probability of \( \frac{1}{5} = 0.20 \). Therefore, each song has a 20% chance to play when the player shuffles.

Outcomes in Probability

In the context of probability, an outcome is any possible result of an event. Let's get back to the music player example. Here, the possible outcomes are the songs that can play.
Understanding the total number of outcomes is crucial in calculating probabilities. It's like setting up your playing field before you start the game. For any event, identifying all possible outcomes is the first step:

• Recognize the scenario: The album contains five songs.
• Possible outcomes: When shuffling, any of these five songs can be the outcome.

By clearly understanding the total number of outcomes, you lay down the path for precise probability calculations. In simpler terms, knowing how many possibilities there are allows you to measure how likely each one is.

Desirable Outcomes

Desirable outcomes in probability refer to the specific results we are hoping to achieve. To visualize, imagine all the outcomes like lottery tickets and your desired outcome as the winning ticket.
Returning to the example of our music player: you are focusing on that one particular song you'd like to hear when you start playing the album.

• Identify what you're listening for: This could be any song you have in mind such as "So What" or "Blue in Green".
• Count it as one: No matter how many songs are in the mix, each song you specifically want is one desirable outcome.

Understanding what constitutes a desirable outcome helps to focus your probability calculation. It is the target which guides the calculation process. In the scenario of the music player, while each song has an equal chance of playing, your focus determines the specific desirable outcome among the many possibilities available.