Question

The odds that an event will occur are 3 to \(4 .\) Is it more likely that the event will occur, or is it more likely that the event will not occur?

Short answer

It is more likely that the event will not occur than the event occurring as \(\frac{4}{7} > \frac{3}{7}\).

Step-by-step solution

Understand Odds and Probability

Odds represent the likelihood of an event to occur versus it not occurring, in this case, the odds are 3 to 4. Therefore, out of 7 attempts (3+4), the event will occur 3 times and not occur 4 times.

Calculate Probability of Occurrence

Probability is the ratio of the favorable outcome to the total number of outcomes. Here, the probability of the event occurring (P(E)) is \(\frac{3}{7}\).

Calculate Probability of non-Occurrence

Similarly, the probability of the event not occurring (P(E')) can be calculated as \(\frac{4}{7}\).

Key concepts

Probability of an Event

When we talk about the probability of an event, we're delving into how likely it is for a particular outcome to take place. Imagine flipping a coin; we say the probability of it landing on heads is \frac{1}{2} because there are two possible outcomes and one of them is favorable. To compute the probability, we use the formula:

\( P(E) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of outcomes}} \).

In our original exercise, the probability was \(\frac{3}{7}\) suggesting that out of seven total trials, three are expected to result in the event occurring. Understanding this concept is crucial for predicting the likelihood of various scenarios, whether it's rolling dice, drawing cards, or predicting weather!

Odds of an Event

Odds, although related to probability, express a slightly different concept. They are typically seen in ratios, like 3 to 4, and describe the relationship between the number of times an event will occur versus the number of times it will not. Unlike probability, which is always a number between 0 and 1, odds can range from 0 to infinity.

The odds given in our exercise are 3 to 4, meaning for every three times the event happens, it does not happen four times. This doesn't directly tell us the probability but gives us an understanding of the relative frequency of occurrence to non-occurrence.

Favorable Outcomes

Favorable outcomes are the bread and butter of probability. These outcomes are the ones that we are interested in when we're assessing risk or predicting events. In our exercise, the favorable outcome is the event occurring, which we represented as happening 3 times out of 7 total possibilities.

Identifying the favorable outcomes is the first critical step before you can proceed to calculate the probability. Moreover, in different scenarios, what's considered a 'favorable' outcome can change according to what we're hoping to occur. It all boils down to perspective and context in a given situation.

Total Number of Outcomes

The total number of outcomes is the sum of all the possible results of an event. In many standard probability problems, like rolling a single six-sided die, this number is a small, easily manageable number, six in the case of the die.

In our exercise, the total outcomes comprise both the occurrences and non-occurrences of the event, which adds up to 7 (3 occurrences + 4 non-occurrences). Calculating the total number of outcomes is essential as it forms the denominator in the probability calculation, putting the 'favorable outcomes' in the context of the 'big picture'.