Chapter 3: Q.3.27 (page 109)
Extend the definition of conditional independence to more than events.
Short Answer
Conditional independence is independence in conditional probability.
Chapter 3: Q.3.27 (page 109)
Extend the definition of conditional independence to more than events.
Conditional independence is independence in conditional probability.
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Get started for freeLet . Express the following probabilities as simply as possible:
Independent flips of a coin that lands on heads with probability p are made. What is the probability that the first four outcomes are
(a) H, H, H, H?
(b) T, H, H, H?
(c) What is the probability that the pattern T, H, H, H occurs before the pattern H, H, H, H?
(a) A gambler has a fair coin and a two-headed coin in his pocket. He selects one of the coins at random; when he flips it, it shows heads. What is the probability that it is the fair coin?
(b) Suppose that he flips the same coin a second time and, again, it shows heads. Now what is the probability that it is the fair coin?
(c) Suppose that he flips the same coin a third time and it shows tails. Now what is the probability that it is the fair coin?
The color of a person’s eyes is determined by a single pair of genes. If they are both blue-eyed genes, then the person will have blue eyes; if they are both brown-eyed genes, then the person will have brown eyes; and if one of them is a blue-eyed gene and the other a brown-eyed gene, then the person will have brown eyes. (Because of the latter fact, we say that the brown-eyed gene is dominant over the blue-eyed one.) A newborn child independently receives one eye gene from each of its parents, and the gene it receives from a parent is equally likely to be either of the two eye genes of that parent. Suppose that Smith and both of his parents have brown eyes, but Smith’s sister has blue eyes.
(a) What is the probability that Smith possesses a blue eyed gene?
(b) Suppose that Smith’s wife has blue eyes. What is the probability that their first child will have blue eyes?
(c) If their first child has brown eyes, what is the probability that their next child will also have brown eyes?
Suppose that we want to generate the outcome of the flip of a fair coin, but that all we have at our disposal is a biased coin that lands on heads with some unknown probability p that need not be equal to 1 2 . Consider the following procedure for accomplishing our task: 1. Flip the coin. 2. Flip the coin again. 3. If both flips land on heads or both land on tails, return to step 1. 4. Let the result of the last flip be the result of the experiment.
(a) Show that the result is equally likely to be either heads or tails.
(b) Could we use a simpler procedure that continues to flip the coin until the last two flips are different and then lets the result be the outcome of the final flip?
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