Question

Hurricane Evaluation Rubric You work with a team of disaster specialists for the Weather Channel. During discussions about coverage of the upcoming hurricane season, your boss states that she doesn't believe the Saffir-Simpson scale sufficiently reflects the risks associated with hurricanes because it places so much emphasis on the physical characteristics of the storm. The channel wants to create its own scoring system that better evaluates the potential damage from incoming hurricanes. 1\. You and your team are assigned to create an evaluation rubric to assess factors influencing the risk of damage from a future hurricane. On the table presented here, identify at least five additional factors; one (wind speed) has been included as an example. When developing your rubric, consider both physical and cultural factors. 2\. After completing the rubric, you realize that some factors are more significant than others. Your team decides to double the score of the most important factor. Which factor do they choose? Why? 3\. Read the following descriptions of Hurricanes Dennis and Mitch that are abbreviated versions of accounts published by the National Climatic Data Center (www.ncdc.noaa.gov). Do these descriptions cause you to change any of the categories in your scoring rubric? Rank these storms, using your modified rubric. Hurricane Dennis, August 1999. The coastal areas of North Carolina experienced their fourth tropical storm scare in as many years in late August. Hurricane Dennis developed over the eastern Bahamas on August 26 and | Factors | Low risk (1 point) | Moderate risk (2 points) | High risk (3 points) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Wind speed (Category 1,2) | Intermediate (Category 3) | High (Category 4, 5) | | | | | | | drifted northward parallel to the southeast US coast. Dennis became an immediate threat to southeastern North Carolina on August 29. The storm center came to within 97 kilometers ( 60 miles) of the coast early on August 30 as a strong category 2 hurricane with highest sustained winds of 166 kilometers per hour (103 miles per hour). Rainfall amounts approached 25 centimeters ( 10 inches) in coastal southeastern North Carolina. This area is no stranger to hurricane activity. Category 2 Hurricane Bertha and category 3 Hurricane Fran hit Brunswick County in 1996 , and Hurricane Bonnie (category 2 ) followed nearly the same path in 1998 . Prior to 1996 , the area had been spared from the direct impact of a hurricane since Charlie (category 1) hit Carteret County in \(1986 .\) Because Hurricane Dennis never made landfall, damage was only moderate. However, the storm lingered off the coast for several days, so beach erosion and damage to coastal highways were significant. Residents of Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands were stranded for several days because of severe damage to Highway 12 . Hurricane Mitch, October/November 1998. Hurricane Mitch will be remembered as the most deadly hurricane to strike the Western Hemisphere in the last two centuries. The death toll was reported as 11,000 , with thousands of others missing. More than 3 million people were either left homeless or otherwise severely affected by the storm. In this extremely poor developing region of the globe, estimates of the total damage exceeded \(\$ 5\) billion. Within 4 days of its origin as a tropical depression on October 22, Mitch had grown into a category 5 storm. On October 26, the monster storm had deepened to a pressure of 905 millibars, with sustained winds of 155 knots (180 miles per hour) and gusts well over 200 miles per hour. Mitch moved westward, and on October 27 , it was about 97 kilometers ( 60 miles) north of Honduras. Preliminary wave height estimates north of Honduras during this time were as high as \(13.5\) meters (44 feet), according to one model. Although the ferocious winds began to abate slowly, it took Mitch 2 days to drift southward and make landfall. Mitch then began a slow westward drift through the mountainous interior of Honduras, finally reaching the border with Guatemala on October \(31 .\) Although the ferocity of the winds decreased during the westward drift, the storm produced enormous amounts of precipitation, caused in part by the mountains of Central America. As moist air from both the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean to its south fed into Mitch, the stage was set for a disaster of epic proportions. Taking into account the orographic effects of the volcanic peaks of Central America and Mitch's slow movement, rain fell at a rate of 30 to 60 centimeters (12 to 24 inches) per day in many of the mountainous regions. Total rainfall of as much as nearly 2 meters ( 79 inches) was reported for the entire storm.

Short answer

Mitch is ranked higher due to greater impact and lower preparedness.

Step-by-step solution

Identifying Additional Risk Factors

Along with wind speed, other factors that influence hurricane risk are rainfall amount, storm surge height, duration of impact, and affected population density. Additionally, preparedness level and infrastructure robustness are important cultural factors.

Weighting the Risk Factors

While all factors contribute to hurricane risk, storm surge height is often considered the most devastating due to its potential for widespread destruction. As such, the score for storm surge height is doubled in the scoring rubric.

Analyzing Hurricane Dennis

Hurricane Dennis had high wind speeds (Category 2), significant rainfall (10 inches), and caused notable beach erosion and infrastructure damage despite not making landfall. Overall risk is moderate due to past hurricane experience in the area and prompt recovery.

Analyzing Hurricane Mitch

Hurricane Mitch had catastrophic effects, with extremely high winds (Category 5), a significant storm surge (based on wave heights), and massive rainfall (up to 79 inches), leading to a tragic death toll and extensive homelessness, especially impacting a region with low infrastructure robustness.

Adjusting the Rubric After Case Evaluation

After examining both hurricanes, it is clear that cultural factors like preparedness and infrastructure robustness play critical roles, especially demonstrated by Hurricane Mitch's disaster in a poorly prepared region. Mitch is ranked higher due to its intense impact across multiple factors and significant cultural vulnerability.

Key concepts

Saffir-Simpson Scale

The Saffir-Simpson Scale is a widely used tool for classifying hurricanes based on their wind speeds. It assigns a category, from 1 to 5, to hurricanes, with Category 1 representing the lowest intensity and Category 5 the highest. This categorization helps in understanding the potential physical damage from a hurricane.
However, the scale primarily focuses on wind speed as the determinant of a hurricane's power. This implies that it might miss other critical factors that can influence the overall impact of a hurricane.

• Wind Speed: The core component of the Saffir-Simpson scale, with categories defined as follows: Category 1 (74-95 mph), Category 2 (96-110 mph), Category 3 (111-129 mph), Category 4 (130-156 mph), and Category 5 (157 mph or higher).
• Limitations: The scale does not account for rainfall, storm surge, or cultural factors that could impact hurricane damage.

Given its limitations, many experts suggest complementing this scale with additional assessments to capture a fuller picture of a hurricane's potential risk.

Physical and Cultural Factors

Physical and cultural factors are crucial in assessing the true impact of hurricanes. While the physical attributes of a hurricane, like wind speed and storm surges, contribute to its destructive potential, cultural factors can influence the amount of damage a community experiences.

Physical Factors

• Rainfall and Flooding: Heavy rainfall can lead to severe flooding, sometimes causing more devastation than the wind itself.
• Storm Surge: Elevated water levels due to storms; often considered one of the most dangerous aspects of hurricanes.
• Geophysical Features: Coastal topography and ocean depth can amplify or mitigate a hurricane's impact.

Cultural Factors

• Population Density: Highly populated areas tend to experience more severe consequences.
• Community Preparedness: Strong emergency planning and infrastructure can significantly reduce potential losses.
• Economic Stability and Resources: Wealthier communities often have better means to protect against and recover from hurricane impacts.

Combining physical and cultural factors helps in creating a comprehensive risk assessment strategy, enabling communities to better prepare and respond.

Risk Evaluation Rubric

A Risk Evaluation Rubric is an essential tool for systematically assessing the potential impact of hurricanes. It takes into account various risk factors, assigning scores to evaluate and compare the risk levels associated with different hurricanes.

Designing the Rubric

• Criteria Selection: Choose factors such as wind speed, rainfall, storm surge, and population density.
• Scoring System: Assign points ranging from low risk to high risk based on defined thresholds for each criterion.

Weighting Factors

• Identify critical factors that may need extra emphasis—such as storm surge, which could merit a double score due to its devastating potential.
• Adjust scores based on historical data and expert opinions.

A well-crafted rubric allows for clearer communication and understanding of the potential threats posed by a hurricane, helping stakeholders prioritize response efforts.

Hurricane Impact Factors

Understanding Hurricane Impact Factors is key to predicting the potential damage and threat levels of incoming hurricanes. These factors include both tangible characteristics of the hurricane and the vulnerabilities of the affected area.

Primary Impact Factors

• Wind Speed: Influences structural damage to buildings and infrastructure.
• Storm Surge: Causes coastal flooding, with the potential to be more damaging than the wind itself.
• Rainfall: Leads to inland flooding, often overwhelming drainage systems.

Secondary Impact Factors

• Duration of Impact: Longer-lasting storms can exacerbate overall damage.
• Affected Infrastructure: Older, less robust infrastructure will likely result in greater damage.
• Local Response and Recovery Capabilities: The ability of a community to respond and recover can mitigate long-term effects.

Analyzing these factors aids meteorologists and disaster response teams in crafting better predictive models and response plans, ultimately reducing human and financial loss.