Hurricane Evaluation Rubric
You work with a team of disaster specialists for the Weather Channel. During
discussions about coverage of the upcoming hurricane season, your boss states
that she doesn't believe the Saffir-Simpson scale sufficiently reflects the
risks associated with hurricanes because it places so much emphasis on the
physical characteristics of the storm. The channel wants to create its own
scoring system that better evaluates the potential damage from incoming
hurricanes.
1\. You and your team are assigned to create an evaluation rubric to assess
factors influencing the risk of damage from a future hurricane. On the table
presented here, identify at least five additional factors; one (wind speed)
has been included as an example. When developing your rubric, consider both
physical and cultural factors.
2\. After completing the rubric, you realize that some factors are more
significant than others. Your team decides to double the score of the most
important factor. Which factor do they choose? Why?
3\. Read the following descriptions of Hurricanes Dennis and Mitch that are
abbreviated versions of accounts published by the National Climatic Data
Center (www.ncdc.noaa.gov). Do these descriptions cause you to change any of
the categories in your scoring rubric? Rank these storms, using your modified
rubric.
Hurricane Dennis, August 1999. The coastal areas of North Carolina experienced
their fourth tropical storm scare in as many years in late August. Hurricane
Dennis developed over the eastern Bahamas on August 26 and
| Factors | Low risk (1 point) | Moderate risk (2 points) | High risk (3
points) |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Wind speed (Category 1,2) | Intermediate (Category 3) | High (Category 4, 5)
| |
| | | | |
drifted northward parallel to the southeast US coast. Dennis became an
immediate threat to southeastern North Carolina on August 29. The storm center
came to within 97 kilometers ( 60 miles) of the coast early on August 30 as a
strong category 2 hurricane with highest sustained winds of 166 kilometers per
hour (103 miles per hour). Rainfall amounts approached 25 centimeters ( 10
inches) in coastal southeastern North Carolina.
This area is no stranger to hurricane activity. Category 2 Hurricane Bertha
and category 3 Hurricane Fran hit Brunswick County in 1996 , and Hurricane
Bonnie (category 2 ) followed nearly the same path in 1998 . Prior to 1996 ,
the area had been spared from the direct impact of a hurricane since Charlie
(category 1) hit Carteret County in \(1986 .\)
Because Hurricane Dennis never made landfall, damage was only moderate.
However, the storm lingered off the coast for several days, so beach erosion
and damage to coastal highways were significant. Residents of Hatteras and
Ocracoke Islands were stranded for several days because of severe damage to
Highway 12 .
Hurricane Mitch, October/November 1998. Hurricane Mitch will be remembered as
the most deadly hurricane to strike the Western Hemisphere in the last two
centuries. The death toll was reported as 11,000 , with thousands of others
missing. More than 3 million people were either left homeless or otherwise
severely affected by the storm. In this extremely poor developing region of
the globe, estimates of the total damage exceeded \(\$ 5\) billion.
Within 4 days of its origin as a tropical depression on October 22, Mitch had
grown into a category 5 storm. On October 26, the monster storm had deepened
to a pressure of 905 millibars, with sustained winds of 155 knots (180 miles
per hour) and gusts well over 200 miles per hour.
Mitch moved westward, and on October 27 , it was about 97 kilometers ( 60
miles) north of Honduras. Preliminary wave height estimates north of Honduras
during this time were as high as \(13.5\) meters (44 feet), according to one
model.
Although the ferocious winds began to abate slowly, it took Mitch 2 days to
drift southward and make landfall. Mitch then began a slow westward drift
through the mountainous interior of Honduras, finally reaching the border with
Guatemala on October \(31 .\)
Although the ferocity of the winds decreased during the westward drift, the
storm produced enormous amounts of precipitation, caused in part by the
mountains of Central America. As moist air from both the Caribbean and the
Pacific Ocean to its south fed into Mitch, the stage was set for a disaster of
epic proportions. Taking into account the orographic effects of the volcanic
peaks of Central America and Mitch's slow movement, rain fell at a rate of 30
to 60 centimeters (12 to 24 inches) per day in many of the mountainous
regions. Total rainfall of as much as nearly 2 meters ( 79 inches) was
reported for the entire storm.
