Question

How are computer models employed in climate change research? Describe several scenarios for 21 st-century climate change.

Short answer

Computer models in climate change research are mathematical simulations used to predict climate behavior. Based on these models, scenarios for 21st-century climate change include varying levels of warming, ranging from severe increases in climate and weather extremes in a high-emission scenario, to slower climate change and moderate warming in a low-emission scenario. Please refer to the detailed step-by-step solution for more information.

Step-by-step solution

Understanding Computer Models in Climate Change Research

Climate change research uses computer models, which are mathematical representations of the Earth's climate system. Scientists input data about the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice into these models in order to simulate and predict climate behavior. This helps us understand the potential effects of rising greenhouse gas levels, and evaluate solutions.

Enumerating Several Scenarios for 21st Century Climate Change

Different scenarios for climate change in the 21st century projects various degrees of warming. Each scenario is based on a range of possible greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. For example, in a high emission scenario, there could be severe and widespread impacts on societies and ecosystems, including profound increases in weather and climate extremes, shifting climate zones, and disruptions to ecosystems. In a low-emission scenario, the rate of climate change could be slowed and gradually stabilized, but some degree of warming and sea-level rise would still occur.

Describing Scenarios in Detail

Describe each scenario in detail. For instance, discuss how much warmer the planet could get under each scenario, and how this might affect everything from sea levels to agriculture to disease patterns. Also discuss the uncertainty associated with each scenario, and note that while we cannot predict the exact outcomes, the risk of severe impacts increases with higher levels of warming.