Question

Political predictions generally prove fairly accurate when the presumption that the future will be similar to the past is (i) ______ . In periods with substantial (ii) _______ in the political world, however, predictions can be (iii) _______wrong. $$\begin{aligned}&\text { Blank }\\\&\text { k (i) }\\\&\begin{array}{|c|}\hline \text { disproved } \\\\\hline \text { stipulated } \\\\\hline \text { fulfilled } \\\\\hline\end{array}\end{aligned}$$ $$\begin{aligned}&\text { Blank }\\\&\text { (ii) }\\\&\begin{array}{|c|}\hline \text { upswings } \\\\\hline \text { insurgencies } \\\\\hline \text { changes } \\\\\hline\end{array}\end{aligned}$$ $$\begin{aligned}&\text { Blank }\\\&\text { (iii) }\\\&\begin{array}{|c|}\hline \text { thoughtfully } \\\\\hline \text { perilously } \\\\\hline \text { carelessly } \\\\\hline\end{array}\end{aligned}$$

Short answer

The most fitting words to fill in the blanks would be: (i) fulfilled, (ii) changes, (iii) perilously.

Step-by-step solution

Analyze the context for the first blank

The sentence talks about political predictions and assumes the future will be similar to the past. From the options provided, the word that most accurately fits the context of the sentence is 'fulfilled'. This is because the validity of political predictions often depends on the how closely they follow historical trends, therefore if the assumption is 'fulfilled' it means the future indeed follows the pattern of the past.

Analyze the context for the second blank

The sentence now introduces a contrast with 'however', and talks about periods of 'substantial' something in the political world. This means we're looking for a word that describes significant events or shifts in politics. From the options provided, 'changes' is the most fitting as it represents major alterations or deviations in the regular pattern of the political world which could affect the validity of the predictions.

Analyze the context for the third blank

The sentence, after introducing 'changes', mentions that predictions can be something 'wrong'. Considering the context, 'perilously' comes off as the most fitting term amongst the options. It indicates that the political predictions can be hazardously or dangerously wrong in times of significant political changes.

Key concepts

Political Predictions

Understanding political predictions involves recognizing how these forecasts often rely on the assumption that future events will mirror past occurrences. This concept stems from a belief in patterns and trends that politicians, analysts, and the public believe will continue into the future.

For instance, if a country has experienced economic growth during certain governmental policies, predictors might assume continued growth if those policies remain unchanged. This expectation is described by the term 'fulfilled' within the exercise context, indicating when the assumption that the future mirrors the past is met.

• Assumptions play a crucial role: Predictions hinge on whether historical patterns will persist.
• Accuracy is tied to stability: When social, economic, or political dynamics remain constant, predictions tend to hold.
• Risk of error increases with change: Unforeseen changes disrupt expected patterns, leading to prediction errors.

Contextual Analysis

Contextual analysis refers to understanding a piece of text or a situation by examining the context in which it occurs. In the exercise, contextual analysis helps determine the appropriate word choice for each blank. To correctly fill the gaps, consider how each part of the sentence relates to the others.

Recognizing key terms such as 'however' signals a contrast, prompting the consideration of opposing ideas in the latter parts of the sentence. This enhances comprehension and ensures that the sentence maintains a logical flow by recognizing shifts in meaning or tone.

• Identify contrasting terms: Words like 'however' indicate a transition, often signaling a change in direction or outcome.
• Assess the situation's background: Analyze surrounding information for clues on the broader scenario.
• Link ideas logically: Ensure chosen words align with the intended meaning and maintain coherent sentence structure.

Sentence Completion

In sentence completion tasks like this one, evaluating context and logical flow is essential in choosing the correct words. This method requires analyzing each section of the sentence and predicting how best to complete the statement so that the full passage makes sense.

The exercise includes three blanks where words must fit correctly into the sentence's logical structure. Each selection depends on understanding the sentence as a whole.

• Break down the sentence: Look at each segment and consider its individual meaning before linking it to the rest.
• Understand the overall message: What is the sentence trying to convey?
• Use contextual clues: Analyze hints provided by the surrounding text to inform your word choice.

Word Choice

Word choice is crucial in completing sentences and ultimately impacts the precision and clarity of the communicated message. Each word selected should fit seamlessly into the sentence and its context.

In this exercise, selecting 'fulfilled,' 'changes,' and 'perilously' demonstrates how careful attention to word choice ensures coherence and logical consistency. Every option needs to be considered for its impact on the overall meaning.

• Selecting 'fulfilled' aligns with historical continuance, creating a smooth logical flow.
• 'Changes' captures the essence of political transformation, underlining unpredictable outcomes.
• 'Perilously' appropriately describes the hazardous nature of making predictions in volatile times.

Logical Reasoning

Logical reasoning involves piecing together information coherently and deriving conclusions based on facts and understanding the relationship among concepts.

In sentence completion, logical reasoning helps you choose words that fit. It aids in comprehending each segment's purpose and aligning it with others to provide a seamless understanding of the text.

• Infer relationships: Understand how each idea or concept connects to others in a sequence.
• Draw conclusions: Based on available clues, deduce the most probable outcomes.
• Maintain consistency: Ensure that the chosen words sustain logical flow and coherence throughout.