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“The Lucas critique by itself casts doubt on the ability of discretionary stabilization policy to be beneficial.” Is this statement true, false, or uncertain? Explain your answer

Short Answer

Expert verified

The statement is true. This is because the non-rational expectations regarding the economic models impacted the stabilization policy.

Step by step solution

01

Step:1  Introduction

In a 1976 article, prominent economist Robert Lucas described how macroeconomic models might be exploited to evaluate changes in economic policy. Lucas' critique is the name given to this piece.

02

Step:2 Explanation

The Lucas critique in Economics indicates to us the effect that will be carried upon the policy of price inflation and also that the outputs will be depending on the expectations that will help us make the economic policy more effective.

Non-rational expectations econometric models disregard the impact of changing expectations, making them unreliable for evaluating policy options. According to the Lucas critique, the impact of policy on inflation and output is influenced by expectations, making it more difficult to design a helpful policy.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Central banks that engage in inflation targeting usually announce the inflation target and time period for which that target will be relevant. In addition, central bank officials are held accountable for their actions (e.g., they could be fired if the target is not reached), and their success or lack thereof is also public information. Explain why transparency is such a fundamental ingredient of inflation targeting.

Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCECTPI). Convert the units setting to "Percent Change from Year Ago, " and download the data. Beginning in January 2012, the Fed formally announced a 2% inflation goal over the "longer-term."

a. Calculate the average inflation rate over the last four and the last eight quarters of data available. How does it compare to the2% inflation goal?

b. What, if anything, does your answer to part (a) imply about Federal Reserve credibility?

If the public expects the Fed to pursue a policy that is likely to raise short-term interest rates permanently to 5%, but the Fed does not go through with this policy change, what will happen to long-term interest rates? Explain your answer.

How can the establishment of an exchange-rate target bring credibility to a country with a poor record of inflation stabilization?

Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) and the spot price of a barrel of oil (WTISPLC). For both variables, convert the units setting to "Percent Change from Year Ago, " and download the data from 1960 to the most recent available data.

a. Identify periods in which oil price inflation is 80%or higher.

b. In the periods identified in part (a), how many months was oil price inflation 80% or higher? What was the average core inflation rate during each of those episodes?

c. Based on your answers to parts (a) and (b) above, what can you conclude about the credibility of more recent monetary policy compared to its credibility in the earlier periods?

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