Chapter 25: Q.16 (page 676)
Why did the oil price shocks of the
Short Answer
Inflation and unemployment contributed to the economic shock that began in 2007. Actual inflation and unemployment were lower than in previous crises in the 1970s.
Chapter 25: Q.16 (page 676)
Why did the oil price shocks of the
Inflation and unemployment contributed to the economic shock that began in 2007. Actual inflation and unemployment were lower than in previous crises in the 1970s.
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Get started for freeGo to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) and the spot price of a barrel of oil (WTISPLC). For both variables, convert the units setting to "Percent Change from Year Ago, " and download the data from
a. Identify periods in which oil price inflation is
b. In the periods identified in part (a), how many months was oil price inflation
c. Based on your answers to parts (a) and (b) above, what can you conclude about the credibility of more recent monetary policy compared to its credibility in the earlier periods?
As part of its response to the global financial crisis, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate target to nearly zero by December 2008 and quadrupled the monetary base between 2008 and 2017, a considerable easing of monetary policy. However, survey-based measures of five- to ten-year inflation expectations remained low throughout most of this period. Comment on the Fedโs credibility in fighting inflation.
In what sense can greater central bank independence make the time-inconsistency problem worse?
Suppose an econometric model based on past data predicts a small decrease in domestic investment when the Federal Reserve increases the federal funds rate. Assume the Federal Reserve is considering an increase in the federal funds rate target to fight inflation and promote a low inflation environment that will encourage investment and economic growth.
a. Discuss the implications of the econometric modelโs predictions if individuals interpret the increase in the federal funds rate target as a sign that the Fed will keep inflation at low levels in the long run.
b. What would be Lucasโs critique of this model?
In some countries, the president chooses the head of the central bank. The same president can fire the head of the central bank and replace him or her with another director at any time. Explain the implications of such a situation for the conduct of monetary policy. Do you think the central bank will follow a monetary policy rule, or will it engage in discretionary policy?
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