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“The more credible the policymakers who pursue an anti-inflation policy, the more successful that policy will be.” Is this statement true, false, or uncertain? Explain your answer

Short Answer

Expert verified

True. A credible anti-inflation programme will reduce inflation faster and at lower costs if expectations influence wage and price setting.

Step by step solution

01

Content Introduction

The reality that inflation expectations have a significant impact on the actual behavior of inflation. As a result, people's inflation expectations will shift depending on how trustworthy these politicians are. It's a very credible policymaker who claims that they're going to undertake anti-inflationary policies, and that as people's inflation expectations fall, low inflation may be predicted.

02

Content Explanation

If a little less credible policymaker claims to be anti-inflationary, and we don't believe them, we should expect considerably higher inflation. And these expectations work to alter the aggregate supply curve in the short run in the other direction. So, if we expect low inflation, we can expect the short run aggregate supply curve to shift to the right, cutting inflation even further. If we were expecting more inflation, however, the short run aggregate supply curve would move to the left, pushing inflation even higher.

As a result, low inflation expectations are associated with fantastic policymakers, whereas higher inflation is associated with less credible policymakers.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCECTPI). Convert the units setting to "Percent Change from Year Ago, " and download the data. Beginning in January 2012, the Fed formally announced a 2% inflation goal over the "longer-term."

a. Calculate the average inflation rate over the last four and the last eight quarters of data available. How does it compare to the2% inflation goal?

b. What, if anything, does your answer to part (a) imply about Federal Reserve credibility?

In general, how does credibility (or lack thereof) affect the aggregate supply curve?

Suppose an econometric model based on past data predicts a small decrease in domestic investment when the Federal Reserve increases the federal funds rate. Assume the Federal Reserve is considering an increase in the federal funds rate target to fight inflation and promote a low inflation environment that will encourage investment and economic growth.

a. Discuss the implications of the econometric model’s predictions if individuals interpret the increase in the federal funds rate target as a sign that the Fed will keep inflation at low levels in the long run.

b. What would be Lucas’s critique of this model?

As part of its response to the global financial crisis, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate target to nearly zero by December 2008 and quadrupled the monetary base between 2008 and 2017, a considerable easing of monetary policy. However, survey-based measures of five- to ten-year inflation expectations remained low throughout most of this period. Comment on the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation.

How is constrained discretion different from discretion in monetary policy? How are the outcomes of these policies likely to differ?

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