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Explain why you would be more or less willing to buy gold under the following circumstances: a. Gold again becomes acceptable as a medium of exchange.

b. Prices in the gold market become more volatile.

c. You expect inflation to rise, and gold prices tend to move with the aggregate price level.

d. You expect interest rates to rise

Short Answer

Expert verified

Part (a) If gold is accepted as a medium of exchange, people will be more ready to buy it.

Part (b) If the gold market becomes more volatile, people will be less likely to buy it.

Part (c) If one anticipates inflation to grow and the gold price to climb with it, one will be more likely to purchase gold.

Part (d) If interest rates are predicted to rise, people will be more ready to buy gold.

Step by step solution

01

Introduction

The amount demanded of an asset is directly related to wealth, expected return on asset, and liquidity of the asset, and negatively proportional to expected return on alternative asset, liquidity of the alternative asset, according to the theory of portfolio choice.

02

Explanation to part (a)

If gold is recognized as a means of exchange, people will be more likely to buy it since it will improve liquidity, and investors prefer to invest in liquid assets.

As a result, if gold is accepted as a medium of exchange, people will be more ready to buy it.

03

Explanation to part (b)

If the gold market becomes more volatile, it will raise the risk for investors, and they will avoid investing in gold because no one wants to engage in a dangerous market.

As a result, if the gold market becomes more volatile, people will be less likely to buy it.

04

Explanation to part (c)

If one expects inflation to grow and the price of gold to climb with it, one should consider investing in gold. By purchasing gold now and selling it at a higher price later, investors can make more money.

As a result, if one anticipates inflation to grow and the gold price to climb with it, one will be more likely to purchase gold.

05

Explanation to part (d)

If one believes that interest rates will rise, he will be more willing to buy gold since bonds will become more expensive in comparison to gold, and the investor would prefer to invest where he will earn a higher return.

As a result, if interest rates are predicted to rise, people will be more ready to buy gold.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Raphael observes that at the current level of interest rates there is an excess supply of bonds, and therefore he anticipates an increase in the price of bonds. Is Raphael correct?

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Suppose you are in charge of the financial department of your company and you have to decide whether to borrow short or long term. Checking the news, you realize that the government is about to engage in a major infrastructure plan in the near future. Predict what will happen to interest rates. Will you advise borrowing short or long term?

Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on the M1money supply (M1SL) and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rate (GS10). For the M1money supply indicator, adjust the units setting to โ€œPercent Change from Year Ago,โ€ and for both variables, adjust the frequency setting to โ€œQuarterly.โ€ Download the data into a spreadsheet.

a. Create a scatter plot, with money growth on the horizontal axis and the 10-year Treasury rate on the vertical axis, from 2000:Q1to the most recent quarter of data available. On the scatter plot, graph a fitted (regression) line of the data (there are several ways to do this; however, one particular chart layout has this option built in). Based on the fitted line, are the data consistent with the liquidity effect? Briefly explain.

b. Repeat part (a), but this time compare the contemporaneous money growth rate with the interest rate four quarters later. For example, create a scatter plot comparing money growth from 2000:Q1with the interest rate from 2000:Q1, and so on, up to the most recent pairwise data available. Compare your results to those obtained in part (a), and interpret the liquidity effect as it relates to the income, price-level, and expected-inflation effects.

c. Repeat part (a) again, except this time compare the contemporaneous money growth rate with the interest rate eight quarters later. For example, create a scatter plot comparing money growth from 2000:Q1with the interest rate from 2002:Q1, and so on, up to the most recent pairwise data available. Assuming the liquidity and other effects are fully incorporated into the bond market after two years, what do your results imply about the overall effect of money growth on interest rates?

d. Based on your answers to parts (a) through (c), how do the actual data on money growth and interest rates compare to the three scenarios presented in Figure 11of this chapter?

Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on net worth of households and nonprofits (HNONWRQ027S) and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (GS10). For the net worth indicator, adjust the units setting to โ€œPercent Change from Year Ago,โ€ and for the 10-year bond, adjust the frequency setting to โ€œQuarterly.โ€

a. What is the percent change in net worth over the most recent year of data available? All else being equal, what do you expect should happen to the price and yield on the 10-year Treasury bond? Why?

b. What is the change in yield on the 10-year Treasury bond over the last year of data available? Is this result consistent with your answer to part (a)? Briefly explain.

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