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If large budget deficits cause the public to think there will be higher inflation in the future, what is likely to happen to the short-run aggregate supply curve when budget deficits rise?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The short-run aggregate supply curve will shift upward when there is budget deficit.

Step by step solution

01

Step 1. Define aggregate supply.

Aggregate supply, often known as total production, is the total amount of products and services in a given economy over a certain time period at a given overall price.

02

Step 2. What is likely to happen to the short-run aggregate supply curve if big budget deficits encourage the public to believe that inflation will rise in the future?

When there is a budget deficit and expected inflation rises, the short-run aggregate supply curve swings upward. Inflation rises at every level of output because firms and households expect the Fed to pursue policies that cause it to do so. They will want to raise wages and prices by this amount because they do not want their real wages to fall, which accounts for inflation and is measured in the quantity of goods and services that money can buy.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose the inflation rate remains relatively constant while output decreases and the unemployment rate increases. Using an aggregate demand and supply graph, show how this scenario is possible.

In its statement dated June 14, 2017, the Federal Open Market Committee indicated that inflation โ€œis running somewhat below 2%.โ€ Go to http://research.stlouisfed .org/fred2/, and click on the Series ID link โ€œCPIAUCSLโ€ (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items-SA). Then click on the link โ€œPercent Change from Year Ago.โ€ What has happened to the inflation rate since the time of the last reported value in Figure 16?

In the aftermath of the financial crisis in the United States, labor mobility has decreased significantly. How, if at all, might this affect the natural rate of unemployment?

Suppose the president gets Congress to pass legislation that encourages investment in research and the development of new technologies. Assuming this policy leads: to a positive productivity change for the U.S. economy, use aggregate demand and supply analysis to predict the effects on inflation and output. Demonstrate these effects on a graph.

Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCECTPI), a measure of the price level; real compensation per hour (COMPRNFB); the nonfarm business sector real output per hour (OPHNFB), a measure of worker productivity; the price of a barrel of oil (MCOILWTICO); and the University of Michigan survey of inflation expectations (MICH). Use the frequency setting to convert the oil price and inflation expectations data series to "Quarterly," and

use the units setting to convert the price index to "Percent Change from Year Ago." Download all of the data into a spreadsheet, and convert the compensation and productivity measures to a single indicator. To do this, for each quarter, take the compensation number and subtract the productivity number. Call this difference "Net Wages Above Productivity."

a. Calculate the change in the inflation rate over the four most recent quarters of data available and the four quarters prior to that.

b. Calculate the changes in net wages above productivity, the price of oil, and inflation expectations over the four most recent quarters of data available and the four quarters prior to that.

c. Are your results consistent with what you would expect? How do your answers to part (b) help explain, if at all, your answer to part (a)? Explain using the short-run aggregate supply curve.

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