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Suppose that Natasha’s utility function is given by u(I) = √110I, where I represents annual income in thousands of dollars.

a. Is Natasha risk loving, risk neutral, or risk averse? Explain.

b. Suppose that Natasha is currently earning an income of \(40,000 (I = 40) and can earn that income next year with certainty. She is offered a chance to take a new job that offers a .6 probability of earning \)44,000 and a .4 probability of earning $33,000. Should she take the new job?

c. In (b), would Natasha be willing to buy insurance to protect against the variable income associated with the new job? If so, how much would she be willing to pay for that insurance? (Hint: What is the risk premium?)

Short Answer

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a. Natasha is risk-averse since double differentiation of the utility function is less than zero.

b. Natasha should not take the new job.

c. Yes, she would be willing to buy insurance. She would be willing to pay $198.

Step by step solution

01

Explanation for part (a)

Whether Natasha is risk-loving, risk-neutral, or risk-averse can be found from her utility function; the condition will be:

Risklover:U'I>0,U"I>0RiskNeutral:U'I=0RiskAverter:U'I>0,U"I<0

Let’s check for Natasha,

UI=10I=100.5I0.5U'I=0.5×100.5×I0.5>0U"I=0.25×100.5×I-1.5<0

Thus, Natasha is a risk averter.

02

Explanation for part (b)

Natasha’s utility from the current salary will be 1040=400=20

The expected utility from the new job will be:

EU=0.61044+0.41033=0.6×20.976+0.4×18.166=12.59+7.27=19.86

The expected utility is lower than the initial utility. As Natasha is a risk averter; she will not accept the new job.

03

Explanation for part (c)

If Natasha accepts, then being a risk averter, she will buy insurance to cover the risk.The risk premium is the amount that Natasha is willing to be paid to get the expected salary than the risky salary from the new job.

The expected salary from the new job will be

(0.6x44,000)+(0.4x33,000)=26,400+13,200=$39,600.

The expected utility from the new job is 19.86; thus, to keep the utility unchanged, the income has to be changed. Thus, with utility 19.86, the income will be:

u=10I19.85=10I394.0225=10II=39.40225I=$39,402

Thus, to keep the utility at 19.85, then the income has to be $39,402.

Natasha will be willing to pay $198 (=39,600 – 39,402) as a premium to guarantee an income of $39,600.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Richard is deciding whether to buy a state lottery ticket. Each ticket costs \(1, and the probability of winning payoffs is given as follows:

PROBABILITY
RETURN
.5\)0.00
.25\(1.00
.2\)2.00
.05$7.50

a. What is the expected value of Richard's payoff if he buys a lottery ticket? What is the variance?

b. Richard's nickname is "No-Risk Rick" because he is an extremely risk-averse individual. Would he buy the ticket?

c. Richard has been given 1000 lottery tickets. Discuss how you would determine the smallest amount for which he would be willing to sell all 1000 tickets.

d. In the long run, given the price of the lottery tickets and the probability/return table, what do you think the state would do about the lottery?

Suppose that two investments have the same three payoffs, but the probability associated with each payoff differs, as illustrated in the table below:

PAYOFFPROBABILITY (INVESTMENT A)PROBABILITY (INVESTMENT B)
\(3000.100.30
\)2500.800.40
$2000.100.30
  1. Find the expected return and standard deviation of each investment.

  2. Jill has the utility function U = 5I, where I denotes the payoff. Which investment will she choose?

  3. Ken has the utility function U = 51I. Which investment will he choose?

  4. Laura has the utility function U = 5I 2. Which investment will she choose?

As the owner of a family farm whose wealth is \(250,000, you must choose between sitting this season out and investing last year’s earnings (\)200,000) in a safe money market fund paying 5.0 percent or planting summer corn. Planting costs \(200,000, with a six-month time to harvest. If there is rain, planting summer corn will yield \)500,000 in revenues at harvest. If there is a drought, planting will yield \(50,000 in revenues. As a third choice, you can purchase AgriCorp drought-resistant summer corn at a cost of \)250,000 that will yield \(500,000 in revenues at harvest if there is rain, and \)350,000 in revenues if there is a drought. You are risk-averse, and your preference for family wealth (W) is specified by the relationship U(W) = √W. The probability of summer drought is 0.30, while the probability of summer rain is 0.70. Which of the three options should you choose? Explain.

Draw a utility function over income u(I) that describes a man who is a risk lover when his income is low but risk-averse when his income is high. Can you explain why such a utility function might reasonably describe a person’s preferences?

You are an insurance agent who must write a policy for a new client named Sam. His company, Society for Creative Alternatives to Mayonnaise (SCAM), is working on a low-fat, low-cholesterol mayonnaise substitute for the sandwich-condiment industry. The sandwich industry will pay top dollar to the first inventor to patent such a mayonnaise substitute. Sam’s SCAM seems like a very risky proposition to you. You have calculated his possible returns table as follows:

Probability
Return
Outcome
.999
-\(1,000,000
(he fails)
.001\)1,000,000,000
(he succeeds and sell his formula)

a. What is the expected return of Sam’s project? What is the variance?

b. What is the most that Sam is willing to pay for insurance? Assume Sam is risk-neutral.

c. Suppose you found out that the Japanese are on the verge of introducing their own mayonnaise substitute next month. Sam does not know this and has just turned down your final offer of $1000 for the insurance. Assume that Sam tells you SCAM is only six months away from perfecting its mayonnaise substitute and that you know what you know about the Japanese. Would you raise or lower your policy premium on any subsequent proposal to Sam? Based on his information, would Sam accept?

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