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A farmer's tomato crop is wilting, and he must decide whether to water it. If he waters the tomatoes, or if it rains, the crop will yield \(\$ 1,000\) in profits; but if the tomatoes get no water, they will yield only \(\$ 500 .\) Operation of the farmer's irrigation system costs \(\$ 100 .\) The farmer seeks to maximize expected profits from tomato sales. a. If the farmer believes there is a 50 percent chance of rain, should he water? b. What is the maximum amount the farmer would pay to get information from an itiner ant weather forecaster who can predict rain with 100 percent accuracy? c. How would your answer to part (b) change if the forecaster were only 75 percent accurate?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: The farmer should water his tomato crop with a 50% chance of rain, as the expected profit from watering ($900) is higher than the expected profit without watering ($750). The maximum amount the farmer should pay for perfectly accurate weather information is $50, while he should pay up to $37.50 for 75% accurate information.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate expected profits with and without watering

To decide whether the farmer should water his crop or not, we need to compare the expected profits in each case. 1. Calculate the expected profit with watering: - Irrigation operating cost: $100 - Profit if it rains, or irrigation is used: $1,000 - Expected profit from watering: \(1,000 - \)100 = $900 2. Calculate the expected profits without watering: - Probability of rain: 50% or 0.5 - Profit if it rains: $1,000 - Profit if there's no rain: $500 - Expected profit without watering: (0.5 * \(1,000) + (0.5 * \)500) = $750
02

Compare expected profits to make a decision

Now, we'll compare the expected profits in both scenarios: - Expected profit with watering: $900 - Expected profit without watering: $750 Since the expected profit with watering is higher, the farmer should water his crop when there's a 50% chance of rain. b. Calculate the maximum amount the farmer would pay for accurate weather forecasting
03

Determine the value of perfect information

If the farmer can obtain perfectly accurate weather forecasting information, he can make the best decision every time, either irrigating when rain won't come or not irrigating when it will. With a 50% chance of rain, the optimal decision would yield an expected profit of (0.5 * \(1,000) + (0.5 * \)900) = $950 The value of perfect information is the difference between the expected profit with perfect information and the expected profit with current information: Value of perfect information = \(950 - \)900 = $50 The farmer should be willing to pay up to $50 for perfectly accurate information from the weather forecaster. c. Determine the maximum amount the farmer would pay for 75% accurate weather forecasting
04

Calculate expected profits with and without a 75% accurate forecast

With a 75% accurate weather forecaster, the farmer can choose the optimal action in 75% of the cases. This means he will make the correct decision 75% of the time. 1. Probability of correct decision: 75% or 0.75 2. Probability of incorrect decision: 25% or 0.25 Expected profit with a 75% accurate forecast: - (0.75 * \(950) + (0.25 * \)900) = $937.50 The value of the 75% accurate information is the difference between the expected profit with the 75% accurate forecast and the expected profit with current information: Value of 75% accurate information = \(937.50 - \)900 = $37.50 The farmer should be willing to pay up to $37.50 for 75% accurate information from the weather forecaster.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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