The rational expectations theory posits that individuals and businesses use available information to make foresighted economic decisions. This means they anticipate future changes in fiscal and monetary policies and adjust their actions accordingly.
For example, if consumers expect a future increase in taxes, they might start saving more money instead of spending it, to prepare for higher expenses. If a government plans a temporary tax cut aimed at boosting short-term consumption, its effectiveness could be mitigated if people anticipate it will lead to future tax hikes.
Key aspects of rational expectations theory include:
- Individuals' ability to use all accessible information to make informed decisions.
- The tendency for people to negate policy effects if they believe the policies are not sustainable in the long run.
This theory underscores the challenges policymakers face, as they must consider not only the immediate effects of policies but also how expectations can influence future economic behavior.