Question

A 2017 column in the Wall Street Journal noted that "longterm consumer inflation expectations [are] at record lows." If inflation turns out to be higher than households and firms had previously expected, will the actual real wage end up being higher or lower than the expected real wage? Will employment in the short run end up being higher or lower? Briefly explain.

Short answer

When inflation is higher than expected, the actual real wage comes out to be lower than the expected real wage due to a larger than anticipated decrease in the purchasing power of wages. However, in the short run, employment is likely to be higher as labor costs for employers reduce leading to more hiring.

Step-by-step solution

Understand Inflation Impact on Wages

Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money. This means that if inflation is higher than expected, the purchasing power of the wage decreases more than anticipated. Consequently, the real wage (which accounts for inflation) is lower than the expected real wage. The expected real wage is the wage that workers thought they would receive adjusted for the level of inflation they anticipated.

Analyze Employment Impact

Now, with the real wage being lower than expected due to higher than forecasted inflation, employers find labor (or hiring workers) relatively cheaper. Consequently, ceteris paribus (other factors remaining constant), they will hire more workers in the short run, thus employment will be higher.

Summary of the Results

When inflation turns out to be higher than expected, it reduces the purchasing power of wages more than anticipated. Therefore, the actual real wage is lower than the expected real wage. On the employment front, this unexpected inflation makes the labor cheaper for employers, leading to increased hiring in the short run, hence higher employment.

Key concepts

Employment Effects of Inflation

Inflation can sometimes feel like an invisible force that sneaks up on us, impacting our everyday lives in unexpected ways. One critical area it affects is employment. When inflation ends up higher than what people or businesses anticipated, it sets off a chain reaction. To put it simply, because higher inflation reduces the value of money, the real wage—what you can actually buy with your wage—might turn out to be lower than expected.

This decrease in real wages makes hiring less expensive for companies. Employers suddenly find themselves in a position where the cost of labor is cheaper than they planned. As a result, businesses may decide to hire more workers in the short run. More jobs can seem like a good thing at first glance, but it’s essential to consider the broader picture. Often, these changes can be temporary and might not reflect a genuine improvement in economic health.

• Real wages fall if inflation is higher than expected.
• This makes hiring more affordable for employers.
• Short-term employment may increase as a result.

Inflation Expectations

Expectations about future inflation are like a compass for economic decisions. When businesses and consumers set their economic plans, they rely heavily on what they believe inflation will be. Inflation expectations guide everything from how consumers spend money to how companies set wages and prices.

If inflation turns out to be higher than expected, it can catch everyone off guard. Workers might feel like their purchasing power is slipping away, and those sitting in the corner office might scramble to recalibrate their strategies. Everyone expected one thing, but reality delivered another. Such unexpected shifts can lead to misaligned expectations, causing fluctuations in demand and supply across various markets.

• Inflation expectations influence consumer and business behaviors.
• Surprises in inflation can disrupt plans and strategies.
• Adjustments after the fact may lead to short-term economic instability.

Purchasing Power

Purchasing power is your money's ability to buy goods and services. When inflation is higher than expected, it eats away at purchasing power more than anticipated. This means that even though the numbers on your paycheck are the same, they buy less than you thought they would. Your grocery bill might be higher, and filling up your car's gas tank could leave you grimacing at the pump.

For households, maintaining purchasing power is crucial. It affects their ability to pay for essentials, save for the future, and enjoy discretionary spending. When inflation disrupts purchasing power, it can lead to cautious spending and budgeting woes.

• Higher than expected inflation reduces purchasing power.
• Consumers find they can buy less with their income.
• Economic adjustments are needed to cope with these changes.