Management's estimate of the amount of consideration to which the entity will be entitled should be included in the transaction price. Probability-weighted technique is the best predictive way for estimating the variable under examination, given the different possibilities and probabilities available based on experience. In this instance:
The contract price for 10 speedboats = $400,000
The likelihood for each outcome = 25%
In the first situation:
Bonus payment till 1 February = $21,000
If boats are delivered by February 1, 2018, the chance of getting $421,000.
In the second situation:
Bonus payment till 8 February = $14,000
If boats are delivered by February 8, 2018, the chance of getting $414,000
In the third situation:
Bonus payment till 15 February = $7,000
If boats are delivered by February 15, 2018, the chance of getting $407,000.
In the fourth situation:
Bonus payment after 15 February = $ 0
If boats are delivered after February 15, 2018, the chance of getting $400,000
Based on probability-weighted estimate, the total transaction price is $410,500.