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How can spreadsheet software, such as Excel, help with sensitivity analysis?

Short Answer

Expert verified

All investing is probabilistic because it is impossible to know with certainty what will occur in 5, 10, or 15 years, but it is possible to provide a realistic range of prospective outcomes, so that investors can change their assumptions in a model and examine the output under various alternative scenarios by using sensitivity analysis in Excel or other spreadsheet program.

Step by step solution

01

Definition

Sensitivity analysis is the examination of several causes of uncertainty in model input might be allocated to the uncertainty in the model's output, whether it is numerical or not.

02

Advantages

Sensitivity analysis provides decision-makers with various outcomes to aid in better commercial decision-making. Predictions are more accurate because they thoroughly analyze the factors that influence them.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Hicks Company is considering an investment opportunity with the following expected net cash inflows: Year 1, \(235,000; Year 2, \)195,000; Year 3, \(125,000. The company uses a discount rate of 6%, and the initial investment is \)365,000. Calculate the NPV of the investment. Should the company invest in the project? Why or why not?

Using payback, ARR, and NPV with unequal cash flows

Hughes Manufacturing, Inc. has a manufacturing machine that needs attention. The company is considering two options. Option 1 is to refurbish the current machine at a cost of \(2,600,000. If refurbished, Hughes expects the machine to last another eight years and then have no residual value. Option 2 is to replace the machine at a cost of \)3,800,000. A new machine would last 10 years and have no residual value. Hughes expects the following net cash inflows from the two options:

Year

Refurbish current machine

Purchase new machine

1

\(1,760,000

\)2,970,000

2

440,000

490,000

3

360,000

410,000

4

280,000

330,000

5

200,000

250,000

6

200,000

250,000

7

200,000

250,000

8

200,000

250,000

9

250,000

10

250,000

Total

\(3,640,000

\)5,700,000

Hughes uses straight-line depreciation and requires an annual return of 10%.

Requirements

1. Compute the payback, the ARR, the NPV, and the profitability index of these two options.

2. Which option should Hughes choose? Why?

Suppose Hunter Valley is deciding whether to purchase new accounting software. The payback for the $30,050 software package is two years, and the softwareโ€™s expected life is three years. Hunter Valleyโ€™s required rate of return for this type of project is 10.0%. Assuming equal yearly cash flows, what are the expected annual net cash savings from the new software?

Question: Using payback to make capital investment decisions Consider the following three projects. All three have an initial investment of \(800,000.

Net Cash Inflows

Project LProject MProject N

Year

Annual

Accumulated

Annual

Accumulated

Annual

Accumulated

1

\) 100,000

\( 100,000

\)

200,000

\( 200,000

\)

400,000

$ 400,000

2

100,000

200,000

250,000

450,000

400,000

800,000

3

100,000

300,000

350,000

800,000

4

100,000

400,000

400,000

1,200,000

5

100,000

500,000

500,000

1,700,000

6

100,000

600,000

7

100,000

700,000

8

100,000

800,000

Requirements

  1. Determine the payback period of each project. Rank the projects from most desirable to least desirable based on payback.
  2. Are there other factors that should be considered in addition to the payback period?

Cornell Company is considering a project with an initial investment of \(596,500 that is expected to produce cash inflows of \)125,000 for nine years. Cornellโ€™s required rate of return is 12%.

14. What is the NPV of the project?

15. What is the IRR of the project?

16. Is this an acceptable project for Cornell?

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