Chapter 2: Q9I. (page 225)
What must be the beta of a portfolio with E (r P ) = 20%, if rf = 5% and E ( r M ) = 15%?
1.5
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Suppose that, after conducting an analysis of past stock prices, you come up with the following observations. Which would appear to contradict the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis? Explain.
a. The average rate of return is significantly greater than zero.
b. The correlation between the return during a given week and the return during the following week is zero.
c. One could have made superior returns by buying stock after a 10% rise in price and selling after a 10% fall.
d. One could have made higher-than-average capital gains by holding stocks with low dividend yields.
Which of the following observations would provide evidence against the semi-strong form of the efficient market theory? Explain.
a. Mutual fund managers do not on average make superior returns.
b. You cannot make superior profits by buying (or selling) stocks after the announcement of an abnormal rise in dividends.
c. Low P/E stocks tend to have positive abnormal returns.
d. In any year approximately 50% of pension funds outperform the market.
Suppose you’ve estimated that the fifth-percentile value at risk of a portfolio is -30%. Now you wish to estimate the portfolio’s first-percentile VaR (the value below which lie 1% of the returns). Will the 1% VaR be greater or less than -30%?
Suppose two factors are identified for the U.S. economy: the growth rate of industrial production, IP, and the inflation rate, IR. IP is expected to be 4% and IR 6%. A stock with a beta of 1 on IP and .4 on IR currently is expected to provide a rate of return of 14%. If industrial production actually grows by 5%, while the inflation rate turns out to be 7%, what is your best guess for the rate of return on the stock?
A “random walk” occurs when:
a. Stock price changes are random but predictable.
b. Stock prices respond slowly to both new and old information.
c. Future price changes are uncorrelated with past price changes.
d. Past information is useful in predicting future prices.
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